August 28, 2020 12:00 PM
The 107th Tour de France begins Saturday August 29, 2020 in Nice
DENVER, CO—It is not July, but here we are again, dear Readers, on the eve of the Tour de France, the most prestigious bicycle race in all the world. The world does not look like did in October when this route was announced, nor does the micro-world of cycling, perhaps it is fitting that the Tour de France does not either? Today there is a new essential article of clothing, everyone knows what Zoom is, and the dear Reader can insert their favorite social distancing joke here. In cycling, the weather, the lighting, the landscapes, and especially the supporting crowds look markedly different thus far, and surely, it’ll continue to get more foreign as we plunge into the Fall. But more importantly, all of last year we were already seeing a new generation rising to the top and that has continued to precipitate even quicker despite the 4-month lockdown. Which young upstart shall grab the bull by the horns this year, and seize their chance with both hands? Will a new team rule at the Tour? How will our old favorites fair…the ones who will even be on the start-line, at least? Who is the favorite? What do we know from the warm-up racing since lockdown?
As to the last question, dear Readers, I’ll be honest with you: not much, we have more questions than answers at this point. The season properly kicked off in a sun-burnt Tuscany, with everyone’s beloved Strade Bianche. It was not the early spring classic to which we are accustomed. O! the heat. O! how the gravel was so loose. And O! how the dust rose. What a hellish re-entry into the calendar that was! And yet what a worthy champion we had: Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), twice third before, rode the race to perfection. It was finely balanced. It was a thriller. It is was an edition we shall hold dear and not forget. When he rode up that 17% gradient into Siena’s famous piazza to no applause or rabid tifosi exhorting him on, we were reminded that times are still tough, normalcy cannot yet even be faked. And yet, dear readers, in that moment I felt like we were all transported back to 1946, we were watching Fausto Coppi dominate Milan-Sanremo, re-opening the cycling calendar. I became hopeful and excited, I pray we will look back and feel the same about this Tour de France. Wout Van Aert, the cylcocrosser, was not given this honor to welcome back in cycling; he produced it, he earned it. And he followed it up again with another master stroke a week later winning Milan-Sanremo; how beautifully well he played that finale, beating Julian Alaphilippe (Deceunick-Quick Step) in a photo. Who would have predicted such a stunning double from him just two years ago? Then again, who would have predicted a pandemic would shut down the world in 2020 just two years ago?
Meanwhile, the other early story line pertaining to our Tour run up were the skirmishes of the super teams. Ineos swept up the prizes and awards in Occitanie led by defending Tour champion Egan Bernal. And yet they ran into a brick wall in Tour de l’Ain. After months and years of preparation Jumbo-Visma was finally ready to face Ineos at full strength, in open battle. This is the year they shall slay the Ineos hydra with a hydra of their own…or at least that what they tell themselves. But they did well here, at the Tour de l’Ain. Now Bernal still looked fairly good it must be said, but Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) looked better and the rest of Jumbo took Ineos to the cleaners. But Ineos did not have long to lick their wounds and sharpen their weapons for the next battle. Three days later they clashed again at the Dauphine and many unforeseen events transpired. Sure, sure, Van Aert had yet another quality win for himself and Jumbo-Visma on the opening hill-top finish. On the summit finish of Stage 2, it seemed perhaps a hierarchy for the Tour was being established: Roglic beat the field again with the help of Steven Kruijswijk (Jumbo-Visma), Tom Dumoulin (Jumbo-Visma), and an exceedingly strong Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) at the finish. He took the scalps of Pinot (Groupama – FDJ), Quintana (Team Arkea Samsaic), Buchmann (Bora – Hansgrohe), Superman Lopez (Astana Pro Team), Dani Martinez (EF Pro Cycling), Landa (Bahrain – McLaren), Porte (Trek Segafredo), and yes, the mighty Egan Bernal. Bardet (AG2R), Pogacar (UAE – Emirates), Mas (Movistar), Uran (EF Pro Cycling), and Valverde (Movistar) were nonfactors. And Thomas (Ineos), Froome (Ineos), and Alaphilippe burned out noticeably too early. And Ineos showed even poorer the next day when mostly the same names were finishing with Rog on yet another summit finish, but this time Bernal was further back with only Pavel Sivakov (Ineos) to support him. And then things began to really nose-dive. Bernal did not start stage four, within the stage Roglic crashed heavily and Kruijswijk even harder because he did not finish the stage. And yet on Stage 5, a fourth summit finish in a row, all hell broke even more loose. Roglic did not start the day, because of the wounds of his crash from the day before. Geraint Thomas and Chris Froome failed to step up for Ineos, in fact the only presence Ineos had all day was Sivakov in a break up the road with Alaphilippe…Sivakov did look bullet-proof though, all the skin came off his shoulder and still he rode with the leaders until the final kilometers. Porte was nowhere to be seen. Quintana dropped out. With Bernal and Roglic MIA, the battle for the stage and the GC was wild and unpredictable. Thibaut Pinot and Tom Dumoulin, part of that stacked 1990 birth year, were the elder statesmen as Superman Lopez, Tadej Pogacar, Dani Martinez, and Guillaume Martin challenged them for the GC win. In the end, Pinot in pole position did not handle the pressure: he was exciting to watch and yet failed to deliver, Martinez took the overall Dauphine win. But the stage honors were just as interesting and just as exciting, for everyone started together and it was Sepp Kuss, the young American, who went toe to toe and took the scalps of all. Yes, yes, what a domestique he will be for Roglic and Dumoulin when the Tour begins in Nice. But will Roglic be recovered? What about Bernal? Who would be selected for Ineos to counter the dominate displays of Jumbo? You see, dear Readers, what I mean when I say we left with more questions than answers?
Well, dear Readers, we found out the answers to some of these questions in the days that followed. And the shocking news was that Geraint Thomas would be leading the Ineos Grenadiers Giro team, while Froome was consigned to a Vuelta leadership role. The champions most recently of the 2017 Tour (Froome) and 2018 Tour (Thomas) would not be starting in Nice this year. The Dauphine was the final test of all of Ineos’ selection candidates, and the two biggest names did not pass. The Ineos Grenadiers (an additional sponsor) will be all in for Egan Bernal. Instead of relying on the experience of two riders that have a combined five Tour titles between them, Ineos decided to play the hot hands of who are on the best form. Forget experience. Forget the headlines. But O! how I lament the headlines we shall now miss out on, how they would have written themselves of the tensions in leadership between the three previous Tour winners. Let us dream of them no longer, they are not possible now; but surely these are the signs of an older generation being ushered out, and this year they do not even have a chance to defend their place on cycling’s biggest stage. Sure, Ineos are bringing the battle-worn and brilliant Luke Rowe, Dylan Van Baarle, and Michal Kwaitkowski who were rocks in past victories; but Ineos are putting the fate of the team’s high mountain performances into other hands: Richard Carapaz and Pavel Sivakov and Andrey Amador and Jonathon Castroviejo, fresh faces, shall have to be Bernal’s top domestiques in the epic finales. But what of Bernal? He dropped out of the Dauphine, will he even be ready to fight? Apparently reporters at the Dauphine saw him training the following days looking like nothing was out of the ordinary, I would place large sums of money on the idea that he pulled out for just the slightest of precautions: as he should, who cares about placings in the Dauphine if it will affect your Tour performance?
The same can be said for Primoz Roglic. His condition has been kept under more wraps, but insiders say he will be pinging and on flying form. I too think he will be; but the question for me, dear Readers, is will he come in as he did for last year’s Giro or last year’s Vuelta? He was flying too high before and at the start of the Giro last year and in the last week he sank to third overall. But he timed his peak right for the Vuelta and won. Alas! I fear he was flying too high again at the Dauphine, but who knows! Who knows what will happen? Meanwhile, I quite fancy the form Tom Dumoulin is coming into; perhaps he was 95% at the Dauphine and will come to 100% at the proper time. And even without Kruisjwijk who is not good to go for the Tour, both Roglic and Dumoulin will have such strong support from Sepp Kuss, George Bennett, and Wout Van Aert that maybe they have the resources to overhaul Bernal even if he is the best rider in the race?
And what of the rest of the field? Are all the rest just pretenders? Surely there are more than two teams in the race! Thibaut Pinot looks like he might have the legs to win the Tour, but alas! as usual, does he have the head? Who knows with this man! O! How he looked so good in the Pyrenees last year. But then who’s cheeks did not run with tears as he balled his eyes out in the Alps on Stage 19, when he hugged his teammate and climbed into the team car dropping out of the Tour with the knee injury…heartbreaking. Dear Readers, after that event, I have a soft spot for the man: here is a worthy story for a prospective French rider to break their 35-year drought in their home race. What about Nairoman though? He dazzled us all in February with his new lease of life on his new team, Arkea Samsaic. He looked confident, he rode dominantly, perhaps he shall ride like he did in 2013 or 2015, the years he was runner-up? So many thought he would be the first Colombian Tour champion, but the young Bernal beat him to it last year, still it would be great to see Quintana add his name to the tally of Yellow Champions. And what of the rider that makes Bernal look old? Tadej Pogacar. We anticipate and hope a great rivalry shall form between him and Bernal, shall this be their first clash? Third at the Vuelta last year with 3 stage wins when he was only supposed to ride the first two weeks of the race. The sky is the limit for our dear Pog.
Yes, yes in my estimation those are the grandest contenders, the ones on whom large sums should be placed. But of course there are many others. EF with their Colombian trifecta of Uran, Martinez, and Higuita, surely one of them will light up the Tour. Landa has finally been freed: no Aru, no Froome, no Quintana or Valverde, no Carapaz, a whole team to himself; I pray we see the best of him unleashed and unhampered. Bora has their many indistinguishable Germans, Buchmann probably being the best of them as he rode to the most unassuming fourth place in last year’s Tour. Will Superman Lopez bring his cape this year? How about the impressive Dauphine by Guillaume Martin, who could have foreseen such a quality ride? Can he duplicate and triple it, here at the Tour? Porte? Bardet? Valverde? Will they even be in the mix this year? What about my—sorry, everyone’s—beloved Estaban Chaves (Mitchelton-Scott)? O! May we see his two million dollar smile often on the podium this year! And of course, what can we expect from Julian Alaphilippe? The Hector of last year’s Tour: such a mighty warrior he was, and yet he was destined to fall. Hopefully, hopefully he is back on top form by now. He gutted out a good Sanremo, but he was off the pace at the Dauphine. Whether he has another stint in Yellow or not, I know we all want to be entertained by one of cycling’s great showmen.
But for showmen, we can never ever overlook the beloved Peter Sagan, the green machine. With his Giro debut coming so shortly after the Tour, it makes sense he has not been on his best form, but of course we all hope he is now. Surely, he will lengthen his record of Green Jerseys; alas! I cannot see Wout Van Aert challenging him this year with all the team duties he will have protecting Rog and Dumoulin. And of course, the rest of the sprint field doesn’t have a prayer of Green either. In fact the route is so mountainous and hilly this year, I’m unsure how fresh some of these pure sprinters like Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal), Sam Bennett (Deceunick-Quick Step), Giacomo Nizzolo (NTT), and Elia Viviani (Cofidis) will be at the end of these stages. Can they get over a handful of Cat 4, Cat 3, even some Cat 2 climbs daily and still be fresh for the flat finish, or will guys like Sagan, Van Aert, Matteo Trentin (CCC), and Daryl Impey (Mitchelton-Scott) be licking their chops at many reduced-bunch sprints? What about guys like Greg Van Avermaet (CCC), Dan Martin (Israel Start-up Nation), Mikel Nieve (Mitchelton-Scott), Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott), Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal), and Tiesj Benoot (Sunweb)? With such a hilly and mountainous route, surely, they shall have fertile hunting grounds to notch up more stage wins for their palmares.
Yes, the route is mountainous. And if the stage isn’t mountainous, it is hilly. And if it’s neither of those, there is quite a threat for crosswinds. In recent years I have found some of the route experimentation to be abhorrent, to the point I question if the Tour de France is even a tour around France anymore…or just 21 races that take place somewhere in France. And yet, I look back at some of the routes from decades ago, and I watch stages from bygone eras where rigid tradition ruled the day and I cannot but think that the conventionally was almost criminal! I’ll give it to Christian Prudhomme, the Tour’s Director, even if he goes over the top and fails at times, he keeps the race interesting. Some have called this the Vuelta de Francia, and perhaps the Tour is imitating the Vuelta too much and is stealing its style of relentlessly hilly stages, summit finishes, and GC snares on every stage. But I say “Eh, it’s worth a try for a year.” Surely the Tour shouldn’t steal the Vuelta’s spunk and panache every year, their bread and butter…honestly mostly because I think the Tour should be more regal and dignified; but especially in 2020, this is the year for the Tour to mix it up in my opinion. Sure, sure, it is fun to pour over the details of the route: especially to see what epic and fabled climbs of old will grace our screens again. But dear Readers, let me tell you a little secret, at the end of the day: the Tour is the Tour, in the grand scheme the route will never make as much of a difference as the experts will tell you. There will always be pivotal mountain and time trials stages, and there will always be drama on the stages we least expected. I’ll tell you an embarrassing story, dear Readers. My fascination of route previewing peaked before the 2017 Tour. Somehow I had the idea in my head that if Peter Sagan held the Yellow jersey up La Planche des Belles Filles on Stage 5, he would then have proved he could hold it deep into the race and would be motivated enough to attempt to seal the deal in Paris like he epically did at the 2015 Tour of California. Go ahead, laugh, dear Readers, because I cannot remember how I rationalized any of this, and to boot: 2017 was the year he was DQed on Stage 4! And my route analyses have been severely meager ever since.
And with that the preview has been written. All the YouTube videos have been watched, the podcasts have been listened to, the bets have been laid down, fantasy rosters picked out, and the magazines and blogs have been read, this one last of all. It is not long now, only one more night. One more night before the riders and the rest of the caravan begin their Odyssey. It will be different this time, much stranger. Corona cases are rising again in France, surely there is cause for unease. The rules on positive tests are strict, whole teams could be sent home if they have just two cases. What will happen if Bernal has a 5:00 minute lead on Stage 19, and he tests positive? What about false-positives? Are we sure the race can even make it to Paris? We anticipate this tension all the way through. And then again, alas! it shall not be the same roadside spectacle. Summer vacation will be over. And for the sake of the riders in many situations I actually greatly hope the fans do keep their distance, but O! how I shall miss the chaotic tunnels of noise the riders face in ones and twos as the fans pack in for kilometers on end on a tough Pyrenean or Alpine climb! But this is not the year; let us just be thankful we have reached the eve of the Grand Depart for another year, despite all the circumstances. It is time, for the next three weeks, to tune in to a grand narrative, an epic. Every day is another chapter, every day there is a hero. Shall we see sprinters duel at lethal speeds? Will titans clash in the mountains? What moments shall warm our hearts? And which will break them? What name shall be on everyone’s lips? Whose dreams will come true? What new star will rise? Whom shall the journalists write many paragraphs on, and for whom shall the bards compose so many odes? Who will be the hero, you know, the hero that the youngsters pretend to be riding up the biggest hill in their neighborhood? Who shall claim White? What about the Polka-dots? Green? And who’s name shall be added to the greatest roll-call in the sport?
Cycling Odysseys 