The curtain is about to be drawn back, you read on at your own peril. It is the first Rest Day of the Tour de France and I am going to take that seriously. No “dear Readers” and no “Surely’s” for this one, and not much narrative either. I need a break as well, and the purpose of this is just to recap and assess how the race has been.
Here is what I have decided to do. First, I will run through the Top 20 on GC and give my quick thoughts on each person’s performance this race. Then I’ll run through the stages we’ve seen so far and even reveal my biased strange ratings. Before you say “What do you mean? I’ve already read nine ‘incredible,’ but lengthy posts about them, what else is there to cover?” Well, in each one, I basically tried to pick out the most all-encompassing storyline or what singularly excited me most. There are somethings I have thoughts on that should be shared—like Alaphilippe cracking on Stage 8. Then I’ll wrap up with any thoughts on the profile of the stages to come next week. I haven’t seen any news yet on the COVID Rest Day tests results and I’m sick of the topic already.
TOP 20 ON GC
20. Esteban Chaves – There was no really need to start with 20th, I could have easily started from 15th on down. But since Chaves was in 20th I figured I wouldn’t pass it up. I’ll spoil a little secret for those who bother to read this: Chaves has been a card-carrying member of the “Makes-Your-Day” Club since 2016. He’s had a few rough seasons where the only bright spots were a couple of Giro stages, but I think he’s looked good so far. Not 2016 good where he was on Giro and Veulta podiums and won il Lombardia. But a step in the right direction. That said, coming in I figured for some reason he’d be better the first half than the second, but last year he took his Giro stage in the third week so maybe he can do that here. Now that Yates is out of Yellow, I expect Mitchelton to be launching Chaves, Impey, Yates if he loses more time, and especially Nieve in all sorts of breaks that stay away to the line. I am very hopeful for Chaves.
19. Sergio Higuita – I’m looking at Pro Cycling Stats for this list right now, but I don’t want to click to see any riders’ stats, because that will take me down too many rabbit-holes. For awhile I got Higuita and Martinez mixed up, but Martinez is the one who won the Turini Paris-Nice stage last year while Higuita had the electric Vuelta stage win, and one of them did well in California last year too but its 50-50 who it was. The Vuelta stage was electric, and then in his Colombian champ’s jersey Higuita rode surprisingly well in the crosswinds of Paris-Nice before lockdown so I like Higuita more than Martinez. But Martinez’s Dauphine win was impressive. That said, I expected Martinez in the top 20 in GC while Higuita would be lighting it up slightly more on these climbs. Not the case, he always looking to be struggling on the early climbs, but then is surprisingly back deep into the finally. But I still have not seen anything electric like his Vuelta stage from last year. Hopefully he comes good in the second half.
18. Emanuel Buchmann – Between him, and Schachmann, Konrad, and Grossschartner, and there might even be a last German climber…I can’t keep track of them. I only know Buchmann was 4th at the Tour last year a la Haimar Zubeldia (the most “famous” guy for riding anonymously into a Grand Tour (GT) GC Top 10). Anyways, looks like he’s not in as good of form this year. Shame, I wanted to learn more about him, oh well. And sorry, I’ve probably been spelling Emanuel with two “M”’s.
17. Alejandro Valverde – I always think Valverde underperforms at the Tour. He has enough good results here at the Tour and even at the Tour I think he has an impressive string of Top 10 GC’s, but he could have more stages if he ditches GC completely and in this transition year for Movistar where their only win is from Challenge Mallorca in January maybe he should drop out of GC, get in a break and take a stage. Movistar might not even win the team classification this year!
16. Damiano Caruso – This is the random Bahrain guy we’ve been seeing up front the past couple days. I forget what I know about him/I would confuse him with Alessandro de Marchi if I attempted to speak on him. But impressive he’s doing this well.
15. Richard Carapaz – 3:42 down, I think this is a fine place for him to be considering he had a mechanical in the crosswinds. Also it must be noted, if he’s not on top form it’s because he wasn’t supposed to be ready until the Giro in the coming month. Then, also, when he won the Giro last year, I think he was a solid 2 or 3 minutes down on Roglic at the time anyways. Nibali and Roglic just looked at each other as he went up the road and his team leader Landa (better placed at the time) couldn’t chase down his own teammate. So Carapaz, I think is back in that “stealer” roll, but I doubt Roglic gets duped by it again. Also, I think Sivakov is gonna have a big third week whether Carapaz gets better, worse, or stays the same over rest of this race.
14. Tom Dumoulin – 3:22 down, So from what I gather, in the middle of Stage 8 (Probably while Wout was putting pressure on HIM—by accident—during the Port de Bales, the climb before the Peyresourde), he formally told the whole team on the radio that he didn’t feel on good enough form to win and that he’d sacrifice his chances from Roglic…which we all saw on Stage 8, and which he did on Stage 9. Luckily on Stage 9 he didn’t lose too much time, finishing with the Yates group. Now was this sacrifice noble? Yes, it goes without saying. Tom’s a great guy and a good teammate…but this wasn’t part of management’s plan and Jumbo would be in a more commanding position with two leaders. Movistar won the Giro last year with their 1b. leader. Potentially Ineos did too last year with Bernal. In both 2018 and 2019, Ineos made the two leaders work: Thomas and Froome were 1st and 3rd in 2018, Bernal and Thomas were 1st and 2nd in 2019. Going all in for Roglic too early could be dumb, no matter how noble it is. Beyond that….Tom, you’re Tom Dumoulin. You’re the guy I watch almost win the Vuelta in 2015 with literally 1000/1 odds at the beginning of the race. We said a new star was rising in the 2017 Giro d’Italia where you manhandled Quintana and Nibali. How do you only have one GT to your name, three years later? Bernal, Pogacar, and Evenepoel are not getting any younger and more are coming: get a Tour win before it’s too late. All cycling fans want you to do well, and you’re too good a rider to not win the Tour de France. I want your name on that list.
13. Bauke Mollema – 2:31 down, Riding well as usual, nothing stellar, nothing bad. Mollema fine as usual. How old is he? He must be getting old.
12. Enric Mas – 2:02 down, Ok I saw him yesterday and today with Yates, but he and Movistar have been so horribly anonymous this year (not just this Tour) that 12th actually seems like a good position on GC for him. Also, was it 2018 he was on the Vuelta podium? He potentially surged late into the race to take that second spot: if he could do something similar to get in the Top 10 that’d be good, and Top 5 would be really impressive.
11. Richie Porte – 1:52 down, Best he has looked in 2 or 3 years (outside of Tour Down Under). That said, Porte is clearly, clearly over the hill and he’ll maybe be Top 7, I can’t see him being Top 5 even this year. Sorry, Richie but you’re in the twilight of your career.
10. Mikel Landa – 1:42 down, Ok, he’s had a pretty clean run at this so far. No bad crashes, he lost time in the crosswinds, but that’s racing. He’s looked good climbing, TBD if he’s good enough to launch an attack again Pogacar, Bernal, and Roglic.
9. Superman Lopez – 1:15 down, I feel like he should be further back. He looked good on the Oriceres climb, but he was 2nd or 3rd tier on Stages 8 and 9. Good on him for hanging in there again. That said, he was electric a few years ago in any sort of high mountains and he’s due for a big result. Any chance he gets better here and rides himself onto the podium? That would be a really good result for him, anything below Top 5 and I would say he’s critically stalling out as a GC rider. I like him, and love the nickname so I hope he does well. FYI because I don’t think I’ve said it, his real full name is Miguel Angel Lopez.
8. Adam Yates – 1:02 down, He impressed me on Stage 2 going with Alaphilippe. Then he hung around in Yellow longer than expected which was nice to see. It’s good he’s finally having a good Grand Tour for once, like the last 3 or 4 he’s targeted have been clunkers. And he rode very well on Stage 8 to save Yellow, but to be perfectly honest that wasn’t too much of a big deal for me, because it’s clear he’s been on borrowed time this whole time in Yellow anyways. Now the question is, does he fight for GC or go stage hunting? He’s in the Top 10 and only a minute behind Yellow so I think it would be silly to lose time just yet, but he’s already done his maillot jaune stint and from a break he looks on form to win a stage.
7. Tadej Pogacar – 0:44 down, Man of the match for me so far. There are no limits with this kid. Bernal, last year we saw have at least a bad TT in Pau, potentially was slightly flat in one or two mountain stages…I have yet to see Pogacar put a toe wrong in a Grand Tour. He lost time in the crosswinds because of a mechanical. I was excited to see that, because I knew he would grab the race by the scruff of the neck and attack right away in the Pyrenees…if this were Quintana (even 2015 Quintana) he would be quietly bidding his time for a big attack in the Alps that would come way too late when the gap is insurmountable a la Alpe d’Huez 2015. I also find it so exciting that he’s Bernal’s age…and he’s not on Ineos. Whatever happens this year, I’m sure Ineos will easily reload with top talent, but potentially Pog might just be straight up better at everything that Egan Bernal. I find it hard to believe Ineos missed out on this guy! But I’m getting way too ahead of myself and I’m not even mentioning where Remco fits in. But Stage 9 was cool because I believe this WAS the first time ever we got to see Bernal and Pog dealing out blows and then counter-attacking each other, their first proper head-to-head fight. Pog, man of the match right now, in my opinion, even over Roglic.
6. Rigoberto Uran – 0:32 down, He’s looking good. Now he’s another one that must be getting old though, he’s been around for like a decade at least. Good on him to still be around, I thought he peaked with 2nd at the 2014 Giro, then I thought he peaked with 2nd at the 2017 Tour, so what do I know? Maybe the sky is the limit.
5. Nairo Quintana – 0:32 down, Feels good to see him be a relevant GC contender again. Seriously, we haven’t seen it since the 2017 Giro where he finished 2nd to Dumoulin. I’m very happy for him. He looked good on Stages 4 and 8, and luckily good enough on Stage 9 to only lose 10 or 11 seconds. Who knows, back in the heydays he would have good third weeks at these things so maybe he can deliver. I’m super happy for him though, it’s fun to see him do well.
4. Romain Bardet – 0:30 down, I am shocked he’s in 4th place and only 30 seconds down. Did he hold onto a car or something? Didn’t notice him at all on Stage 4, only times I saw him on Stage 8 on the Peyresourde he looked bad, but then was nipping seconds at the finish having caught up on the descent. He looked pretty good on Stage 9. I don’t know, I don’t have the energy to invest thoughts or hope into these temperamental French guys. He’s more reliable than Pinot, but not as fun. Pinot though it’s annoying how often he blows it, when he’s “ON” he’s way more fun than Bardet. Goes without saying Alaphilippe is more reliable than both (but not a rider built to win a GT) and he’s way more fun too.
3. Guillaume Martin – 0:28 down, What an impressive ride! I remember seeing him on Wanty Group-Gobert in previous years and they would say he’s their GC rider and I would seriously think to myself “Oh, that’s cute. Wanty think they have a GC rider.” Anyways, his Dauphine was really impressive so there was some sort of signal this was coming. He’s also finished in the Top 20, maybe Top 15 before so this is somewhat for real, like he can ride a three-week race unlike Pinot. What’s been the coolest so far is that this hasn’t been an anonymous third place, he made a solid winning move on Stage 4, but you can’t beat upset when two Slovenians named Pog and Rog beat you. But the move to Cofidis has been impressively successful, I am impressed and eager to see his next two weeks.
2. Egan Bernal – 0:21 down, I’ve found this to be an EXTREMELY interesting Tour for Egan. Ineos Grenadiers are not the strongest team at this race and the Slovenians do look better than him at the moment. I loved seeing the first showdown ever between Pog and Bernal on Stage 9. I would love to see this bud into a great rivalry were they and Remco and others go toe to toe and someone always gets the better of the other in these Grand Tours and even some Classics and Monuments. The LAST thing I want to see a lopsided rivalry like Merckx v. Gimondi. Anyways, I think Sivakov will come good in the third week to help Egan out, but this is a really early test to see how great a champion this kid can be, will he rise to the occasion and win in the third week? I don’t know, but he was my pick to win from the start of the race and I stand by it still, I guess, but sternly not as firmly.
1. Primoz Roglic So I was highly critical that Roglic was flying too high at the Dauphine like he was at Romandie before the Giro last year. That said, the way he has raced this week, it has been conservative…he is saving something. With Dumoulin sacrificing his chances, he must also be convinced Rog can go the distance for the three weeks. He’s been Pogacar’s equal, but the sky is the limit with that 21 year-old. Where is Roglic’s ceiling? I thought we maybe saw it at the Giro because 3rd felt like a disappointment. But in his career trajectory it really wasn’t: 3rd in a Grand Tour was still his best result at that point. Since 2016—from memory—I believe he has won a Giro time trial. In 2017, he began winning road stages of the week-long WT stage races capping it off with a Tour stage win. In 2018, he won some WT stage races, finished 4th at the Tour and took another stage. In 2019, was lights out in a bunch of WT stage races and took stages left and right, then got 3rd in the Giro and came back and won the Vuelta. If he wins the Tour this year, over the past 5 years he will have risen from the bottom to the top in perfect incremental steps with no setbacks of any kind. That would be super impressive to see actually, I would enjoy seeing that constant, but reasonable progression pay off instead of a meteoric rise of Tadej Pogacar. It would also be exciting to see another team besides Ineos/Sky win the Tour for once. But above all I root for an exciting race so I don’t want him to just dominate this thing for the next two weeks while in Yellow or have his major competition be Pogacar who is basically just his little brother at this point…that’s not dramatic enough. Last thing I’ll say about him, sorry, actually about my coverage of him: I haven’t mentioned once that he is a former Ski Jumper, because I’m just that good of a guy.
THE STAGES
Stage 1 (Kristoff wins the rainy sprint.) – I was really happy for Kristoff, but I was surprised Bennett of Quickstep was out of position they’re usually really good about setting up their sprinters to win even in the bad conditions, apparently Morkov was further back? He really is their talisman in the sprints. I actually didn’t mind the rain, it seemed like it’d have been a snoozer of a stage without it. The rain made it more interesting even if it resulted in a rider led neutralization. My rating: 7/10, allow me to explain what a “10” is really quick: a “10” is a complete race, it had everything I wanted. Thus yes, it is possible a race can exceed my wildest dreams and score higher than a “10.”
Stage 2 (Alaphilippe wins into Nice ahead of Hirschi and Yates) – I absolutely loved this stage, this is why I watch bike racing. People were saying even then Alaphilippe was off his best. I had hoped he proved right there that he was on his best form at the perfect time. Unfortunately, I was wrong on that count, but you couldn’t tell that from that win…on that win Al looked to be back at his best. People were saying he didn’t beat Hirschi by enough. Well maybe Hirschi has risen to another level of rider…Stage 9 proves he has. My rating: 9.4/10
Stage 3 (Caleb Ewan wins the sprint) – Really good and impressive sprint win by Caleb. But for whatever reason, he doesn’t fire me up as much as other riders. And he actually should, that was a very, very impressive win to weave and come from so far behind. I love Sagan and Gaviria, because they re-write the script and win however they can and they never give up. Meanwhile, Ewan in the past 2 or 3 years has become more dynamic too winning some pretty tough sprints with uphill kickers at the end. Anyways, I expect him to take more stages. Also, I was rooting for Sam Bennett, I really like him, and by all accounts he did everything right: there was just no way to stop Ewan that day. My rating: 6/10
Stage 4 (Orcieres, Jumbo clinic where Roglic won the sprint) – Roglic and Jumbo all looked super impressive. At the time I thought this is exactly what Roglic shouldn’t be doing is getting ahead of himself. But others covering the race thought he almost reluctantly won at the top, and after seeing this weekend of racing I could potentially buy that. And then, this is when he became clear that Alaphilippe probably wasn’t on the same form as last year, because that was a sprint he would have won last year…just no way around it. My rating: 8.8/10
Stage 5 (Wout’s first sprint stage) – This one was extremely boring, luckily I didn’t watch much of it. There wasn’t even a breakaway, when the Tour reduced the teams down from 9 to 8, they should have invited two more teams. All these smaller teams have sprinters too, that’s why they didn’t go into the break. Wout was lights out, I think I covered that enough in the Swiss Army Knife report. But damn, Sunweb are so impressive at developing talent. Not sure I knew anyone on their lead out train, and Cees Bol was just the name of someone who gets 7th in a bunch sprint on a stage of the Eneco Tour or something…but now he’s a name to not underestimate. It’s a shame Sunweb has such trouble holding on to all their guys, but they have a smaller budget and I’ve heard the management is unbearably rigid or something?? My rating: 7.2/10 (can you tell Wout’s my guy!!)
Stage 6 (Lutsenko on Mont Aigoual win) – This one was boring. I was actually really mad the GC guys wasted this summit finish. The break was super strong, but I thought some would try something! Maybe a summit finish with no GC gaps (usually created by an early time trial) isn’t a good idea. They probably should have rode the descent into the nearest town to see if something happened there. I don’t know, maybe this stage was bound to come up flat. My rating: 5.7/10
Stage 7 (Crosswinds, Van Aert’s second stage) – This was an excellent stage and it would have been a perfect race if Sagan had won. Not even win, but just finished it off with at least a high placing to take a big lead on Green. He really is off this Tour. I don’t think he had a good training regime in lockdown (I can’t blame him either). I’ve been thinking he wouldn’t be on form until the Tour started, because he still has the Giro afterwards, and maybe he’ll look good in the last week with more racing. But right now, I agree with everyone else he’s well off his best. And this will be his most challenging Green Jersey to win, and I’m not even holding my breath he takes a stage. Bennett is the biggest competition for it. Also if Wout wasn’t on team duties, he would have already sealed this Green Jersey by now. My rating: 9.7/10
Stage 8 (Peters wins Peyresourde, Pog takes back time) – Out of the guys in the breakaway, I think I probably would have rooted for Nans Peters the most, or Neilson Powless because he really is stepping up. Anyways, Peters: Giro stage in his debut, Tour stage in his debut: he’s a talent. 26 seems old compared to Bernal/Pog/Remco, but who knows, maybe he’s the next Thomas de Gendt Breakaway Specialist. Also, I knew Pog would attack, I guess I already said that though in his GC run-down paragraph. O! Pinot’s back was hurting him, I guess, whatever it’s one thing after another with him. I want him to win and I’m sure his excuses are legitimate, but I’m not even interested in reasons for his collapses anymore. And then Alaphilippe, I don’t know. I wasn’t too surprised this year, and if he wasn’t gonna win or go very deep in Yellow maybe it’s for the best so that he can start getting in breaks and possibly take some stages. Hopefully this will keep him fresh for the rest of his season as well, because he shouldn’t have to dig too deep here. My rating: 8.9/10
Stage 9 (Pog wins sprint over Rog, Hirschi, Bernal, Landa) – Great stage, this is why I watch cycling. Another great Sunweb rider, I hope he tries again this Tour and gets a stage, this kid is the real deal at something, he’s another that could go for Green if he wanted. I’ve talked enough about the GC guys. Two good days in the Pyrenees despite no summit finish, and this one I’m hesitant to even call a High Mountain stage. My rating: 9.5/10
First week overall: five excellent days, two average days, and two subpar days. That’s an excellent first week. From a personal standpoint I never really lacked for material to talk about either, so I really enjoyed it. This week was at least tied with best first week I’ve ever seen or takes the crown, but I don’t keep too much track. I remember I really enjoyed 2016 where Cav, Sagan, and Van Avermaet each all took Yellow for the first time ever, can’t think of any other rivals to this first week besides.
THE STAGES TO COME (follow along by looking up the stage profiles).
Stage 10 – Pan flat, but on the coast. They want this to be a crosswind stage, but I may have been seeing stuff that there isn’t supposed to be much wind. Who knows though, and I just consider Wout a top sprinter now anyways honestly so he’s probably my guy.
Stage 11 – Another flat one. Sprint stage. I mean the sprinters do need their days, we should NOT be in the mountains every day.
Stage 12 – Two tough hills probably close enough to the finale with bonus seconds on the last hill that some of the sprinters are disenchanted. I could see them just letting a breakaway go, I guess. The GC guys may not even want to mess with sprinting for Bonus seconds that day. Not sure what to expect and I’m not very good at predicting. I think the GC teams really will want to use these days as recovery, plus Jumbo is solidly now in the jersey too so they should easily control the majority of the stages however they want.
Stage 13 – Extremely hilly if not low-key mountainous day. These stages are the best if someone lights it up. I remember Vuelta stages where Contador would light them up before making it a surprise GC day. I would love for someone to do it. Or if a high-quality breakaway goes up the road and we see a great battle between 2 or 3 really strong climbers duking it out for the stage win.
Stage 14 – It’s like every stage in this second week is made for the breakaway. I would love something GC-wise to happen on the Cat2 climb and then everyone has to race full gas all the way to the finish like on a crosswinds stage. But who knows, probably unrealistic. This is a lame stage for a primetime Saturday.
Stage 15 – This stage was supposed to happen on my birthday. GC day, this should be legit and I’ll be upset if they let a breakaway have a 20 minute lead going into it.
I guess that’s all I wanted to preview for now, because after this is the rest day. So we may not see anymore GC battles until Sunday. I’m not sure that’s a fair trade: such an exciting first week, but potentially a quiet second week. I would hope the wind picks up for tomorrow then and that one of those lumpy stages has GC implications.
Cycling Odysseys 