THE TOUR IS WINDING DOWN AS IT TRADITIONALLY SHOULD

TDF 2020, Stage 19 Bourg-en-Bresse – Champagnole 166.5 km

Sprinters attack, but Andersen escapes in a counterattack to take a 2nd stage.

DENVER, CO – The stage was one for the sprinters today, the Tour came out of the mountains and headed north towards Paris. It was a relatively dull day with only Remi Cavagna (Deceuninck-Quickstep) in the break, and he was brought back after the Intermediate Sprint—Sam Bennett (Deceuninck-Quickstep) notably finished ahead of Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) again. But with 35 km to go, the peloton was all back together and riders tried fresh new escape attacks from the peloton. It was then that we saw a group of all the major sprinters and top classics men in the Tour remarkably make the winning move, except for Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal) and Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma). With such a strong and loaded group, it was a done deal that this would go to the line, powerful names like Peter Sagan, Sam Bennett, Matteo Trentin and Greg Van Avermaet (CCC), Oliver Naesan (AG2R), Luka Mezgec (Mitchelton-Scott), Luke Rowe (Ineos) were there with many others. Lotto Soudal rode for a few kilometers for Ewan, but quickly gave up hope. Trentin and Sagan both had an interest in riding away from Sam Bennett in order to claw back some Green Jersey points. On a small unclassified climb, Trentin launched a large attack and Sagan responded, but Bennett rode right in his wheel to mark every move his top competitor would do. Trentin’s attack was massive and put many people into the red to bridge the gap, but when Trentin sat up knowing he had no gap it was Soren Kragh Andersen (Sunweb)—yes, the rider who won in Lyon—who counterattacked the group. When no one went with him or quickly responded to chase him down, that was it: stage over. You see, when you give an inch to a cyclist like Andersen, he will take a mile. Once again it was Sagan himself who had just brought back and neutralized the last attack and thus it was the fault of many others to not attempt to cover or even ride with Andersen. For the last 15 km, Andersen built up a minute advantage over the completely un-cohesive group of strong chasing sprinters. Andersen took a second stage win, congratulations to the young man and chapeau to Sunweb’s third brilliant stage win—all very well earned. Behind Sagan, Trentin, and Bennett all rode together with Bennett marking everything and at the line he came across first to take more Points than his biggest rivals. Thus now Bennett is on 319 Points, while Sagan is only at 264, and Trentin at 250; Bennett has all but sewn up the Green Jersey competition.

Ah! The Tour surely feels like it is heading for Paris now after such a transitional stage. Yes, the Olympian and Titanic clashes are behind us now, after 19 stages of racing a hierarchy has been established and who will be the winner of the 107th Tour de France is fairly evident. There is a final test tomorrow, but Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) has done quite a bit of the heavy lifting already to ensure his Tour victory. Some novice fans shall ask, well what is the point now, why continue to watch?  O! Dear Readers, this is one of the unappreciated beauties of the Tour—in many recent editions, not even appreciated by Christian Prudhomme, the Tour’s Race Director who plans the broad strokes of the route each year. Despite this Tour’s unorthodox opening on the Cote d’Azur in Nice where the race entered into proper mountains on only the second stage, now its finish is winding down and hearkens back to Tours in bygone eras. Think about the geography of France, dear Readers: Paris is in the north, where France is flat. Naturally, if this were to be a real loop or lap of France, inevitably the race must come out of the mountains and travel the flats to make it home. Yet in recent decades, the Tour has not bothered to attempt to make its way to Paris, instead Prudhomme has opted for an epic penultimate day followed by a train or plane ride to Paris that evening or next morning for the final Sunday coronation procession on the Champs-Elysees. I must admit, I was eager and would still never refuse to see the epic Alpe d’Huez decide the Tour on the penultimate day like in 2015, but the more I reflect on the essence of the Tour de France I do not think I find such a sensational stage appropriate for a final test.

Dear Readers, I am starting to love the conventionality and predictability of the Tour de France. Again it goes back to France’s geography, the mountains are in the south and if the race is to finish in Paris as it always shall, then it is appropriate that it at least attempt to make its way north as it is this year. Leave the epic and exciting penultimate mountainous Queen stages that turn the GC on its head to the Giro d’Italia and Veulta a Espana where mountain passes abound near the typical finishing cities of Milan and Madrid. It is part of the Tour’s glory and prestige that it should be a constraining-ly regal and even predictable affair. Perhaps it is because we did not get it this year, but I am starting to fall in love once again or more than ever before with a traditional Tour de France route: a flat-ish first week with many sprints and some sort of time-trial, then the race opens up in the first big mountain range (Pyrenees or Alps depending on the route) followed by an overarching transition to the other big mountain range (the other of the Alps or Pyrenees) and then the race should have some sort of falling action as it definitively makes its way and looks towards Paris. Sprinkle in the lumpy hilly stages, the breakaway stages, the Massif Central, the Vosges and Jura mountains, the cobbles of Roubaix however the Race Director sees fit each year—even end with a penultimate mountain stage so long as the race is heading in the direction of Paris. Is this an audacious move on my part, me an American telling the French how to organize their own race? Do not misunderstand me, dear Readers, from stage to stage this has been a very great Tour, but I claim that is despite its unorthodoxy and not because of it. This year the stages were all well-crafted and designed better than ever to make for an exciting route, but at the beginning they overtly did not come in the correct order. I love the idea that the Tour should be a slow build up to a big climax followed by a slow winding down process where the overall picture becomes clear; on either side of the grand climax I hope there would be many exciting stages while at the same time the Tour keeps a clear sense of an overall extremely thorough grinding and sifting process throughout the race. The beginning of this Tour did not correctly have the slow build, but with yesterday’s lower-key mountain stage and today’s archetypal transition stage this Tour is nailing the falling action: keeping the racing spicy while fitting the beautiful conventional narrative. Now, of course, I would be happy if the Tour always came down to the wire—to the penultimate day—but it should always be after whittling down most the competitors throughout the entire race. A fabulous Queen Stage should never come on the penultimate day of the Tour, but somewhere about two-thirds of the way through—as it was this year either on the Grand Colombier stage or on the Col de la Loze on Stage 17. Yes, this is the regality of the Tour, the champion should slowly rise to the top or slowly be sculpted like Michelangelo’s Pieta. Never should the Tour winner pop out from behind the Wizard’s Curtain on the penultimate stage such as happens at the Giro or the Vuelta. Such events are wild and beloved and forever cherished, but they do not belong at the end of the Tour de France. In an ideal Tour, like in 1989, the favorites should be whittled down over the course of the race to one, two, perhaps three at most until the penultimate stage. And on the penultimate stage—making its way to Paris where hills or mountains are not always available—there must be one final test. If the race is near the Massif Central or Vosges or Jura mountains, then by all means take advantage; but if it is crossing the meadows and fields to Paris then have the final test be against the clock. This year we shall be treated to an ingenious combination of both.

Tomorrow’s penultimate stage will be a time trial that finishes at the top of the Category 1 climb La Planche des Belles Filles. Ah! Yes, tomorrow’s stage shall surely live up to that mythical and dramatic name for the Tour’s traditional final test against the clock: The Race of Truth. Primoz Roglic is one of the finest time-trialists in the world and also a very fine climber, it will be shocking if he cedes over a minute or any time at all to Tadej Pogacar (UAE) who has only ever beaten him once in a Time Trial. Now that said, that Time Trial win was from their most recent duel at the Slovenian Nationals back in June, so perhaps we should not underestimate Pogacar of pulling off anything—all sorts of mechanical issues can happen as well. It will also be interesting to see how many of the riders will play the route. There are about 30 km of relative flat first, followed by the 5.9 km climb that averages an 8.5% gradient. The mountain itself shall be discussed more in depth tomorrow, but it gets very steep in the final kilometer. Perhaps steep enough at the top and for its entirety that many of the riders shall wish to do a bike swap at the base of La Planche des Belles Filles —from their aero time-trial bikes to their familiar road bikes that are lighter and much easier for climbing. But the Yellow Jersey is not the only thing to be decided tomorrow, is our beloved hero Superman Lopez’s (Astana) podium position safe? He leads Richie Porte (Trek-Segafredo) by over 90 seconds, but Superman’s record in TTs is spotty at best. He has shipped minutes in Giro and Veulta TTs when he absolutely should not have. Additionally and interestingly, this TT will decide the King of the Mountains this year. A time-split will be taken at the bottom of the climb and the five fastest times strictly up the climb itself will be awarded the 10, 8, 6, 4, and 2 KOM Points. Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) leads Tadej Pogacar by 2 points in that the KOM competition, with Roglic 7 points behind Carapaz—unless I have read the scoring wrong and there are double points available for this “summit finish” climb, these three riders are the only ones mathematically still in contention for the Polka Dot Jersey. Surely, the advantage shall go to Carapaz who cares nothing about his total TT time. Surely, he will sandbag for the first 30 km of flat and then absolutely rip it up the climb to try and set the best time. While behind, Pogacar and Roglic surely will have to ride the entire TT full gas and probably not have enough juice left to blitz it up the final climb for a great time in pursuit of KOM Points—but who knows what will happen, 19 days of racing are in all the rider’s legs. Dear Readers, the ingredients are here for the makings of a good time trial—for the key to a good TT is the overall race implications weighing down on it or else Time Trials can quickly become boring affairs. The Yellow Jersey is likely clinched barring catastrophe or epic collapse, as well as second place and the White Jersey which are both held by Pogacar. Green is all but sewn up as well. But the podium is not locked up nor the ordering of the rest of the Top 10, and though Carapaz must be favored for Polka Dots that contest is not straightforwardly laid out. Yes, perhaps not for all, but for some or even many, it shall be a fitting final test for this Tour de France. Ah! Yes, tomorrow…is the Race of Truth.

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