At the end of my Fleche recap I made a pair of quick picks for Liege. I picked one favorite to win overall, and I picked my “cheeky side-bet” with over 100-to-1 odds who I thought had the most outside of chances to win. Famously as I have said on many previous occasions, I am no good at predicting races, because I always just end up picking a scenario that mildly has a chance of happening and it is the scenario that I want to see happen most. As I have also already stated before, this reached its most extreme low point when I predicted that in 2017 if Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) could stay within a minute of the leaders on La Planche del Belles Filles, then he would do a deep run in Yellow a la Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quickstep) in 2019. The 2017 Tour was the one where Sagan was booted on Stage 4, so I guess we will never know if I was right or not. But with hindsight it is safe to say such a pick was probably lunacy, and since then as a rule I have only ever glanced at stage profiles so that I never allow myself to make such wild claims. Ah! But this season, if one generously allows a few concessions, I am on a bit of a heater. I daresay I basically just went three-for-three in the Ardennes proper as you’re about to hear, and I attribute my success to throwing caution to the wind and watching for the intangibles. But let us address such hypothetical money-squandering degeneration at the end of this recap, first let us address the Monument that unfolded before our eyes today, at Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
It was a great edition of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, surely memorable and worthy of its ancient Monument status. In recent years, occasionally Liege has been a slow-burn with an anti-climatic pay off. Perhaps Liege’s back is always more unexpectedly against the wall than even the most in-tune fans realize. Think about the character of this race. It is a race for the puncheurs and proper climbers, it is up and down constantly all day, it is gruelingly long at over 250km, it is raced like a high mountain stage of the Grand Tours because the elevation gain is similar to one of those big days. But by the end of the Spring Classics we have already just been treated to intriguing show after intriguing show of tactical battles that involve explosive climbs and brutal cobble sectors for some two months, where the pace never slows besides a complete strategic sit-up when the composition of a group does not seem right. That all changes at La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. The climbs are too long and steep to simply explode over, which is understandable in the Southern Scenic High Mountain Ranges of the Grand Tours, but it is deceptive in the Belgian Ardennes off the back of the explosive Flandrien Classics. The Ardenne is beautiful too, but there is no wide-angle mountain vistas to speak of, just steep climb after steep climb through yet another quaint little Ardennes town. Of course, it is a war of attrition, but compared to the Cobbled Classics it is hard for the couch-potato viewer to conceptualize how much harder Liege is, and why the riders are not smashing it up every single climb as they did at say the Tour of Flanders? I am realizing I am forming yet another line of reasoning that the Ardennes Classics should be moved to an August post-Tour slot. In that spot we all would be more prepared to handle an intriguing slow burn having already recently seen a number of slow-burner mountain stages at the Giro and Tour. Luckily, in recent years Liege has opted once more for a relatively flat run-in to the finish which has meant the decisive moves have had to come from further out instead of the last finishing hill. And thankfully, that is exactly what happened this year.
The action began to heat up with some 60km to go. The early breakaway of bit players’ lead began to evaporate, because the peloton was finally picking up steam up and down every climb. Combined, a proper flurry of attacks transpired for the next 30km. The early breakaway of seven riders shattered part as many of the categorized climbs came in quick succession. A a three-man group of non-headliners found some separation from the peloton or were allowed some leash, and eventually they bridged up to what remained of the breakaway. With 35km remaining, four Ineos Grenadiers smashed up the Cote de La Redoute—the race’s most iconic climb—and broke away with a group of 12. But too many favorites had missed the move, and none wanted to work with four Grenadiers. This group was brought back into the fold a couple kilometers later. New fresher attacks would need to be tried, but already much damage had been done. Only 40 riders were left to contend for the win of Liege-Bastogne-Liege. On all the climbs, categorized or not, the Grenadiers fought to really denotate this race. They knew they had a plethora of good climbers, but none likely to win in a sprint with the likes of the headline favorites. Thus they pushed the pace on every rise, and strung out the peloton in one long line hoping to form a smaller group with the right cohesive motives to work together to stay away. Finally, around 23km to go, the Grenadier Tao Geoghegan Hart—reigning Giro d’Italia champion for only a month more—got the elastic of the peloton to snap once again. Grenadier teammate Adam Yates was with him, Jumbo had Jonas Vingegaard glued to these two, the Grenadiers also had Richard Carapaz (another former Giro champion), there was a Bahrain rider, a BikeExchange rider, a tall Israel Start-Up Nation rider, a lesser Quickstep rider, EF’s Sergio Higuita was there in his Colombian champion’s jersey, and the favorite who had been following every move all day Tadej Pogacar (UAE) the defending Tour de France champion was there as well.
O! Surely, surely, Pogacar came into this Monument fiercely eager and itching to race. For on Wednesday at La Fleche, UAE was denied participation when a likely false-positive COVID test was turned up by the team. It seems Pogacar refused to believe it: the team had been vaccinated over the winter, all had turned up two negative tests each before arriving in Belgium, and all turned up negative tests after. Yes, yes, Pogacar recently said there is more to cycling than just the Tour…as in Tadej Pogacar was geed up to race the Mur de Huy at La Fleche Wallonne. With that denied participation, he had a strong desire to unleash everything in this Liege. In all the moves the Grenadiers launched, Pogacar teed himself up to make every split for he wanted to race hard this day. Now he had an opportunity with this group, none of the other top favorites had made it: Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer and Champion of the World was not here, nor Movistar’s 41-year-old birthday boy Alejandro Valverde looking for a swansong Liege victory to cap his career, nor was his Slovenian big brother and make-shift mentor Primoz Roglic the Relentless (Jumbo-Visma) in this move either. Yes, surely Pogacar should have worked with this group so that it would stay away…but this is not what happened. Ineos, with its strength in numbers, sent Richard Carapaz on the attack, because other than Pogacar none in the group were willing to work with them. Thus all, including Pogacar, sat up and let Carapaz go on the attack solo while they were all absorbed back into what remained of the peloton containing the other top headline favorites.
So it was Richard Carapaz the Grenadier was flying solo once more on the attack just as he did to unexpectedly take the lead of the 2019 Giro d’Italia. Yes, at the Giro he built up his lead all in one day as the other favorites just stared each other down and did not chase until it was far too late. And think of last year’s Tour in the last week after his team leader’s hopes of winning were dashed: how Carapaz jumped in the high mountain breakaways three days in a row to put himself in contention for the Polka-Dot Jersey. O! How beautiful it is to see him grab the race by the scruff of the neck when he attacks. It is these ferocious attacks that have garnered this Ecuadorian the nickname “El Jaguar de Tulcan,” (Author’s Note: Tulcan is his native region in Ecuador). This Liege attack today looked great, and surely belonged in that ferocious Jaguar category. But alas! Carapaz’s day was marred. All held their breath when they saw him do it; many thought it was much too bold, and he was looking for trouble. On one of the many quick, steep descents: Richard Carapaz debatably performed the now outlawed Aero Supertuck. Alas! Alas! Did he not listen to my Eulogy one month ago? But of course this is cycling, and never does an event like this pass without some controversy. It was difficult to tell, but it did not seem Carapaz was actually sitting on his top tube in the classic Supertuck position; in fact, it appeared his behind was still perhaps even touching the rivet—the very front—of his saddle. Perhaps he just looked so aero we all just imagined he was in the Supertuck even though he was still touching the saddle. And yet, there was also no way around it, at least 95% of his saddle was bare for the wind to sweep over. Richard Carapaz would later be disqualified for this position. In this case, I do lean towards and understand the decision to disqualify; and though Carapaz’s attack surely influenced the race, luckily he was not much of a factor in the finale. Carapaz’s advantage was at one point 25 seconds over what remained of the peloton, but with 14km to go on the last mighty climb of the day the Cote de Roche-aux-Faucons he was gobbled up by the chasing and now attacking favorites, and spit out the back.
With only 13km still to race, on the Roche-aux-Faucons, Pogacar’s trusty UAE teammate Davide Formolo was the one to finally reel in Carapaz and string out the rest behind. On Formolo’s wheel sat Michael Woods (Israel Start-Up Nation), then came David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Pogacar himself, Alaphilippe in his Rainbow Jersey, famed UAE off-season transfer Marc Hirschi next, veteran Valverde, Jakob Fuglsang (Astana-Premier Tech), Primoz Roglic in his Slovenian National Champion’s Jersey, and Teisj Benoot (Team DSM). These were those strung out at the head of affairs. Ah! But where were the Grenadiers who had done so much denotation work already? Who felt the best of those that remained? Surely, the ones named at the front; but who would launch the next selective attack? I tell you, it was the audacious Canadian who loves the steep gradients: Michael “Rusty” Woods attacked over the top of the climb and the false-flat that followed. Instantly on and glued to his wheel were David Gaudu—surely he was on a great day—and Tadej Pogacar—did I not tell you he was covering every single move? Alaphilippe and Valverde, the kings of the Mur de Huy, scrambled to latch onto this race-winning move for this Monument of the Ardennes. Because behind them, there was a gap! Yes, yes, the defending race champion, the mighty Primoz Roglic the Relentless had not the strength this day to go with such a move. At first glance, especially looking at the quality of the five out front, all thought that should be it, and the final selection made. But Primoz Roglic is the Relentless for a reason. Despite two UAE rider-anchors on his wheel, and even a regrouping of a few other riders including Michal Kwaitkowski (Ineos Grenadiers) and Estaban Chaves (Team BikeExchange), Roglic chased the five leaders back to within a 10-second gap on what remained of that rising false-flat. It took another attack from Rusty Woods for the leading five to find enough real impetus to really assure they would stay away. To Woods’ attack Alaphilippe in his Rainbow Jersey bridged, Gaudu scraped his way back as well with Pogacar and Valverde following in his wheel. Then once more they had a 23 second gap, and Roglic and the rest of his group’s chances of winning this year’s Liege were laid to rest.
And then we came to the endgame: five men left in contention for the win. As I said at the beginning, I had already made my official picks for all to hear, but always the complexion of races such as these is changing. In this scenario, who did I want to win most? What would be the best story or headline? And most importantly, what intangibles were at play right now? Some of these questions I was consciously thinking, but most only subconsciously below the surface. All watching were also subconsciously asking these same questions, running through the intangibles in their heads as well. This provides more hype and excitement to the finale of any race, good commentators will draw this out as well. So how did this group stack up on paper? How have they looked all race and the weeks leading up to this point? And what is most factoring into their psyche and motivations? Let us review the factors that were weighing in our minds at the time.
Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer has been racing from Opening Weekend to today. He has seemed to be firing on all cylinders since then, but since the Tour of Flanders his form has seemed to be dipping until he pulled off the clutch win on the Mur de Huy at Fleche just a few days ago. He comes into this Liege looking for redemption. Surely his relegation last year in the Autumn edition of Liege while wearing the Rainbow Jersey is something he wishes to erase from his mind. And yet here today, he has the extremely rare and golden chance to redeem himself while still wearing the Rainbows. Additionally, the Ardennes is where Alaphilippe really began to make a name for himself, and yet still he has not managed to win this Monument Liege. Surely, he must not squander another chance! For surely amongst this group he should have the top sprint…O! But how much energy has been sapped from the legs?
As has been stated veteran Alejandro Valverde the Green Bullet celebrates his forty-first birthday on this very day. The Ardennes have been O! so special to his heart for time uncounted, and it has long been announced this would be his last season. He holds the record for wins at La Fleche with five, but he has already won Liege four times as well. Were he to win Liege this day he would end his career tied for the Liege victories record in good company: only Eddy Merckx has won it five times. Surely, this would be the definition of great swansong victories. But last year Valverde showed his age by his absence during the shortened lockdown season—no results of any significance. Always a man who has thrived off racing, even been known to race into shape, surely the solitary lockdowns were to his liking least of all the peloton (save maybe the mighty Rockstar Peter Sagan). And yet, here he was in the finale of Liege, already having won the GP Miguel Indurain in the Basque Country, and fresh off a podium at La Fleche; perhaps the stars really were aligning for this swansong of swansong victories. And yet, already three years ago he handed the Mur de Huy mantle to Alaphilippe, and whether up the Mur or on the flat surely nowadays it would be a tall order to beat Alaphilippe in a sprint.
Tadej Pogacar’s intangibles have already been stated, and his plain paper statistics are well known by many now. He is the reigning Tour de France champion, the Tour and Liege have not both been won by a rider in their career for well over a cycling-generation. But to restate the already paraphrased quote, because it is so refreshing and pleasing to the ears to hear: Tadej Pogacar knows there is more to cycling than just the Tour de France. He was there last year in the sprint at the end for Liege, he has won flat sprints after a hard mountain stage in the Grand Tours as well. And yet, though he has taken many stages, he has never won a professional one-day road race in his career. But the biggest of intangible factors stoking the fires in his heart this day was the missed opportunity to race on Wednesday at La Fleche. Already it has been stated how he covered every move. Surely, surely, he would rain hellfire down in this final sprint unless he where to breakaway before.
All know of Michael Woods’ former running background, by the age of 18 he had broken Four Minutes in the Mile: one of the greatest thresholds to cross in all of sports. Many conjecture it is this running background that really helps him excel on the steepest of gradients: should the road pitch over 20%, Woods is always among the best. Perhaps it is folly to think the running mechanics translates to the extremity of getting out of the saddle to lay down as much power as possible up the steep slopes; but surely the intensity of the steepest pitches is akin to the intensity in the final minutes of a middle-distance athletics track race. His record at Liege has been impeccable: four top tens in five starts, including one second place among the bunch. Surely, he has tasted second and shall not be satisfied with anything else than first. And yet, but this point in the race, the significant climbing was finished and on paper he would surely not win this sprint. Surely, he would have to try something before the final straight away.
And fifth of the bunch, with the least likely chance to win on paper was young David Gaudu. Last year he took two stages of the Vuelta, already this year he has been riding well especially when he was the only one to keep pace and ride with Roglic the Relentless to win the last stage of the Tour of the Basque Country: the stage race that most resembles and prepares for this grueling long Liege Monument. But with the same case as Woods, how would he be able to beat the others in a sprint? Surely, he would have just sit on and work less: try for one big attack or the sprint of his life. With Groupama-FDJ talismans and team leaders Thibaut Pinot and Arnaud Demare both struggling for form, his team would really be looking for at least a podium place showing out of him. O! How would he fair on this biggest of stages he has yet to be spotlighted on?
Thus may more depth and story and intrigue have been added to the finale, always these factors should be explicitly or implicitly present in the viewer’s mind so that they may experience the fullest of dramas possible. In the final kilometers they entered urban Liege, but passed into what seemed a slightly more secluded and wooded neighborhood with a few little rises and twists. None found any separation, for all worked fairly well and evenly together. In the final couple kilometers, they descended a main boulevard back into urban Liege proper, and with 2km to go Woods stopped rotating through to the front. A few hundred meters later, with 1.4km remaining, Woods threw the dice and launched his attack. But to no avail; Alaphilippe and the others all covered. How much had Woods just deadened is legs for what would now be the inevitable 5-up sprint at the line? Under the Red Kite signifying 1km remaining, Julian Alaphlippe the Musketeer was stuck on the front. But then the cat-and-mousing began, the pace slowed extremely: all weaved and bobbed around the road working to not be on the front to lead out the sprint, none even seemed to worry another would launch from well far out. Alas! Despite his wise old age, it was Alejandro Valverde that was ultimately stuck on the front; the loser of the metaphorically game of hot-potato. Valverde slowed the pace down to a crawl and worried not at all about how much of the gap a second chasing group was closing down. But with 300m to go, he knew there was nothing for it no matter how much his back was against the wall. Valverde began to wind it up, and then burst into a long full gas sprint from well over the standard 200m out. Ah! But I am sure you can tell, it would not be a swansong victory for the man, but surely he should hold his head high with such a swansong Ardennes performance. And the sprinters he lost to: why it looked poetry on wheels. Woods was second wheel behind Valverde, and he came around on Valverde’s right. But as Woods came around, Alaphilippe further to the right in the Rainbow Jersey came around him. But as Alaphilippe came around, even further to the right came Tadej Pogacar who had started the sprint from the last wheel. Factor in the on-paper statistics, the gaged current form, the tells of their energy reserves, the track sprint tactics—in that instant it looked to me all where collectively evenly matched: all that mattered were the intangibles. Which would win out, redemption or rage? O! It was another photo.
But the photo was not as close as last week’s Amstel, from the overhead helicopter shot it was clear Pogacar’s rage won out against Alaphilippe’s redemption desires. Alaphilippe would take his second place at Liege in a row, the third of his career—close but no cigar once more in the race he most must win in his career. But there was Tadej Pogacar elated in victory, and I must say so was I: for he was my official pick for today. Yes, yes, the most recent book I just finished was Matthew McConaughey’s Greenlights. Perhaps his sports betting section stuck with me, and influenced my decision making when all other factors seemed equal. To quote the man:
“When betting, I specifically enjoy considering the intangibles…The take Brett Favre and the Packers on Monday night because his dad passed away last Tuesday or bet on any team who has a star player who just had his first newborn child because they’re now playing for more than themselves bet…When I win these bets based on these psychological hunches and tells that are neither scientific nor measured by the Vegas line makers, I believe I have an inside track, betting 5.0, Machiavellian craft, all because I kn-ewww it.”
Yes, yes, I think this was applicable to me today. I picked up on the Twitter news about Pogacar’s rage, and when all other factors seemed even to me heading into the race I let that be the deciding one for my official pick. Of course, as Matthew says: there was nothing scientific in it, in fact it is probably harmful to let bets like this go to my head. For in bets like these, all only remember the one they pull off, and not the other ten they have already blown. But with that said, still I head into the Giro d’Italia with hubristic confidence that I shall pick 15 of the stage winners correctly. I am sure I will be humbled in a few weeks’ time, but it is fun to sit on a high horse every once in a while. Today Liege has made me and all faces smile for this Monument, La Doyenne, has lived up to the hype once more and produced a thrilling race to end the Spring Classics on a high note.
Cycling Odysseys 