2021 Giro: Battles and Legacies on the Zoncolan

Cittadella—Monte Zoncolan, 205km

The Giro was in the wilds of Northeast Italy this day—towards the Austrian border. Remote, wooded, green from all the snow and rain of the winter. But what fans there were, were incredibly electrified and pumped the Giro was riding by. Yes, yes, the Italians of these remote Northern villages love it when the Giro comes to highlight the beauty and ruggedness of their landscapes. And when the Giro comes, it is not a sign Summer is arriving; the locals finally hope just Spring will come into full swing. There was a hard fight to get into in the break, they had an 8-minute lead for most of the day there after. The break’s lead was chopped down to 5 minutes on and over the top of a Category2 climb with around 50km to go. It was not the Ineos Grenadiers setting the pace in service of their Giro-leading and Pink Jersey-wearing teammate, Egan Bernal. No, it was the Astana-Premier Tech team in the service of their team leader second on GC and wearing the White Jersey, Aleksandr Vlasov. Yes, Astana was pushing the pace on the descents as well, as they are prone to do at good times and at bad times. Egan Bernal in Pink was onto their every move perfectly positioned, but the other GC contenders: Hugh Carthy (EF) and Remco Evenepoel (Deceuninck-Quickstep) had to expend teammates chasing back to the opportunistic Astana. But the peloton settled down after this; the breakaway’s lead extended back out to 6:20. And with that they came to what was always billed to decide this day and perhaps the Giro itself.

O! O! As soon as the route was announced, all hearts leapt at the news: on the Saturday of the penultimate weekend, the Giro would have a summit finish on the mighty Monte Zoncolan. The Zoncolan is one of those supremely difficult climbs in cycling that was only discovered or first used around the turn of the 21st Century. At the turn of that century, many riders had taken up a few unsavory habits that seemed to increase their fitness. Thus, the organizers sought out and installed even harder climbs into the Grand Tour routes like this Zoncolan. It is one of those climbs that you see the peloton grind and grovel through, and it strikes all of us: “What is the point of the existence for this steep road?” The practical answer in this case is a ski resort. But the right answer is much more eternal: For the Giro. Now, what is often forgotten—including, admittedly, by me—there are two sides to the Zoncolan climb. The Ovaro side has become much more famous: it is universally accepted to be tougher, and it has the iconic amphitheater arena finish at the very top. It was on that Ovaro side in 2018, in the greatest Grand Tour of the decade Chris Froome (now of Israel Start-Up Nation) went about resurrecting his General Classifcation (GC) chances when he won ahead of Simon Yates (Team BikeExchange) who is in the race once more here today. Ah! ah! Ole! Ole! Do yourself a favor and track down a reply of that amazing stage, surely it was well above a 10/10. But there is another side to the Zoncolan starting from Sutrio. They approached from Sutrio in 2003, the first time the Giro ever raced the Zoncolan, and now only for the second time they have come back to it. For this Sutrio side, the Zoncolan climb is 14km long, averages 8.5%, and has a maximum gradient of 27%; in fact the last 3-or-4km average 13%. I know, you are scratching your head at how this could possibly be the “easier” side. Though we have been able to tell on this Giro that Italy is putting COVID behind them, still there were fan restrictions at the very top. All had to get there by ski lift. Only 1,000 tickets were sold at 10 Euros a piece…they sold out in 12 minutes. Did I not say these fans were excited for this Giro? Hardy tifosi were all the Italians up there today. For the final highest kilometers of this climb the road was clear, but there was a solid blanket of snow everywhere else. And though it was not pouring rain, it was incredibly misty and foggy. Fear not! Counterintuitively, low visibility does not diminish the viewing experience, it unequivocally amplifies it. Thus with the landscape laid out, let us draw out the drama.

Even with a six-minute advantage the 11-man breakaway would probably have been doomed on the Ovaro side, but from this Sutrio side there they had a good chance. Into the base of the climb Edoardo Affini (Jumbo-Visma) and Jacopo Mosca (Trek-Segafredo) emptied the tank for their respective team leaders, George Bennett (Jumbo-Visma) and Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), and the rest of the breakaway. Within minutes, the cream of the crop rose to the top of this breakaway. With 12km still to ride, the breakaway was reduced down to the Slovenian Jan Tratnik (Bahrain Victorius), the Champion of New Zealand George Bennett, the Dutchman Bauke Mollema, Movistar’s Portuguese rider Nelson Oliviera, Eolo’s Italian Lorenzo Fortunato,  UAE’s Italian Alessandro Covi who heartbreakingly lost the stage win sprint into Montalcino after all the gravel, and Androni Giocattoli’s Andrii Ponomar—a Ukranian only 18 years of age, the youngest rider of the Giro since World War II. After just a few rotations and teasing-increases of pace, Jan Tratnik the Slovenian was already away. He quickly built up a 12-second gap to the others. Besides the obvious motivation of winning on one of the mightiest climbs in cycling, perhaps Tratnik was psyched for tomorrow the Giro forays into his native Slovenia. Perhaps he wanted to enter the home country as an already mighty champion. Who among the breakaway would respond to this early attack or were the rest saving their energy for the steeper slopes? Young Ponomar was the first to attempt to bridge, Bennett followed with the Eolo rider Lorenzo Fortunato, with Mollema slowly bridging up to them with Covi as well. But just as these chasers were coming back together with Tratnik’s lead up the road lengthening, the least known among them Lorenzo Fortunato attacked to attempt the bridge. The others increased the pace, but they could not dare to climb with Fortunato. Off this 25-year-old Italian Fortunato went after Tratnik for his smaller wildcard-invite team Eolo-Kometa. The Eolo-Kometa team is run by the famous Alberto Contador and just slightly less-famous Ivan Basso; in fact, in 2010 it was Basso who won up this mighty Zoncolan from the Ovaro side. Could this Lorenzo Fortunato follow in the footsteps of Basso his boss? He had a chance, for with 8km to go, Lorenzo Fortunato did successfully bridge to the Slovenian Jan Tratnik.

Behind Astana were still willing to take this all on, they led the peloton onto the mighty Zoncolan. By the time Tratnik reached the 10km to go mark, Astana had brought the peloton with 5:32. But lurking behind Astana all day were the formidable Ineos Grenadiers. When Astana were down to only one or two domestiques left, the Grenadiers decided it was time to stamp their authority. First on the front of the Grenadiers’ great train was Gianni Moscon, then came Jhonaton Narvaez, Johnathon Castroviejo next, Egan Bernal in Pink, and Dani Martinez functioned as the team’s sweeper in the very back. Behind Bernal to give a bit of separation on his rivals and in just case to instantly see if Bernal had any sort of issue. Moscon set a good pace and continued piling on the pressure to the peloton and inching back the breakaway’s gap. But when Moscon swung off, Narvaez put the hurt on everyone. Under Narvaez’s tempo, the breakaway’s lead tumbled and tumbled by leaps and bounds. Vincenzo Nibali (Trek-Segafredo) the Shark of Messina had to say goodbye for the night. Narvaez slashed up two minutes of the breakaway’s lead himself until he finally swung off job well-done. Castroviejo then continued a similarly relentless pace. Yes, yes, so quickly up the mountain were they flying, the breakaway’s chances of staying away were now in doubt.

Ahead Jan Tratnik and Lorenzo Fortunato rode on together with a steady gap of 45 seconds to the other chasers behind. By this point, the raging mists were kicking up and the temperatures were dropping though the sleeveless riders were so exerting themselves they did not notice. Yes, the snowline was approaching now too. Ah! I tell you this rugged wilderness of steep climbing, with wooded green all around but shrouded in mists and plunging temperatures, it reminded me of the lower approaches to those mythical Misty Mountains. Yes, yes, truly this Monte Zoncolan would fit right in amongst the mountain-chain Gandalf the Grey, Bilbo Baggins, Thorin Oakenshield, and their stouthearted companions struggled to cross. Ah! ah! The Misty Mountains were crawling with goblins, surely none of the riders would doubt such evil creatures must live beneath this formidable Zoncolan as well. By this point too, it was getting very dark, all the vehicles had their headlights on, like a mysterious caravan journeying by lamplight in the dead of night. With 3.6km to go, Fortunato and Tratnik approached a weather-beaten hotel that formed an arch over the road, after this hotel is when the gradients would really kick up to average 13% to the finish. To see these misty conditions, to think of goblins below the surface, and to see this gateway of pain ahead: it made me think of our man celebrated yesterday, Dante Alighieri. In the Inferno, there was a great Gate at the entrance of Hell, atop its crossbeam was an inscription that ended with this line: “ABANDON EVERY HOPE, ALL YOU WHO ENTER.” Truly, truly, across this Zoncolan hotel should such a line be inscribed as well, for these last kilometers are that horrible. Yet into the abyss of mists these two brave leaders raced. Ah! ah! Tackling such gradients is difficult to describe. There is a sense of taming or overcoming a brutish beast. And there is an unending sense of keeping one’s head above water. Thus Tratnik and Fortunato wrestled with the first steep ramps like horsemen trying to ford a 15-foot-deep river. And that was not all there was to it: 200km of riding were already in their legs today alone in addition to 13 other stages. Every muscle in not only their legs, but their core, and even their arms was on fire or already numb. They were in their very lowest of gears, and still they were churning so few revolutions of the pedals. On such steep grades, every pedal stroke is like pushing down a 300lb weight that is trying to thrust upwards like a volcanic Hawaiian island. Your mental facilities are extremely warped. Every muscle in your body is telling you to stop, dismount from your bike, and curl up into the fetal position on the side of the road and cry. The only thing that can bargain with every muscle screaming in agony is the tunnel vision that in X-amount of meters it will all be over; it is that lone desire deep in their heart that pushes these riders further than they have ever gone before. It was harnessing that tunnel vision that allowed Lorenzo Fortunato to stamp his pedals down just a bit harder every stroke to find some gap to Jan Tratnik on a steep 16% ramp. The road eased back to “only” 10% and Fortunato pushed with all of his momentum to find some real separation to Tratnik who just did not have it to keep up with him. Then, then the road pitched up once more and Fortunato was swimming against the 20% grade to keep his head above water once more. But he still has two interminable kilometers to go.

Behind, still like a freight train the peloton stormed under the hotel’s Hopeless Gate. Egan Bernal had only one lieutenant left on the front, Lieutant Dan-i Martinez. Bernal, the captain in Pink was behind, followed by Bora’s Emanuel Buchmann, BikeExcahnge’s Simon Yates, Astana’s Aleksandr Vlasov, and Bahrain’s Damiano Caruso. And behind already gaps were opening to the young Remco Evenepoel. Ah! ah! Before we could hold our breath to see if the young Belgian upstart could claw back onto the group, Simon Yates attacked! Finally, finally, it was his first attack all Giro. We have been waiting and waiting to see what he could do…Yates has been waiting for the steepest slopes of the mightiest mountain. Yes, yes, it was he on the last occasion at the Zoncalan that was confidently reeling back in Chris Froome to within 10-seconds until he ran out of road. Here was Simon Yates finally striking out for glory on his beloved Giro. Only one man could follow him. Instantly on Yates was Egan Bernal the Colombian wearing the Pink Jersey as the leader of the Giro d’Italia. Yates attacked with level-headed calm, not showing the agony of the gradients on his face at all, and Bernal was securely nestled and latched on to his wheel. Behind all others were instantly in damage-control, there was no thought to go with those two attackers, their only hopes were to ride a steady pace to the finish to limit their losses. Yates and Bernal were eating up the road and passing the fallen-away chasers in the breakaway as if they were defeated lapped runners in an athletics track race. Yes, yes, through the mists and around the snow, the rest of their competition faded from view.

Up ahead, now in the last 500m, Eolo-Kometa’s Lorenzo Fortunato’s was displaying the agony the climb was causing much better than the attacking Yates and Bernal behind. Yes, yes, every muscle in his face was scrunched together, he looked to be crying; it did not seem like he could see the light at the ended of the tunnel. In fact, he could not due to the curving road and the impenetrable mist. Yet still, still he was passing the signs “500m,” “400m,” “350m,” “300m.” He knew he was closer even if he could not see his prize. He continued to forcefully chug up on the mountain and wrestle with the steep gradients. Tratnik behind was not coming back, and he had enough time in hand on Yates and Bernal so long as he kept forward motion and did not kneel over. Ah! In the last few hundred meters surely it was more than just the primordial tunnel-vision pushing him on. He was daring to dream that the greatest day of his sporting-life was taking place. Surely, we all viewing were wondering if this was the unveiling of a new great Italian hope. Lorenzo Fortunato emerged from the mists with 80m to ride, but the climb did not ease off until the line. Every pedal stroke was still grueling, but then he knew he had. He had just enough energy to post-up at the finish to show off his sponsor. It is by far the biggest result the Eolo-Kometa team has ever achieved to date. Lorenzo Fortunato his established a legacy; today was the day he conquered the Monte Zoncolan.

As Fortunato was crossing the line, behind another was adding another trademark day to his own legacy. Wearing the Pink Jersey, Egan Bernal the Grenadier attacked Simon Yates in a bid to take even more time on all his rivals. Now it was Yates’ turn to not even react to Bernal’s attack. Yates was already doing his utmost pace, he could not even dream of attempting to go with Bernal. Egan Bernal went flying away up the climb hawking down all the breakaway riders still left in his path. He has already won many races in this same fashion. From the first day he set foot in Europe, he has had the weight of Colombia on his shoulders for all knew he was destined for greatness. He won the 2019 Tour de France and on spot became the greatest Colombian cyclist to date. But in 2020, his progression stalled out, he was bested and trounced by two Slovenians. Since then, it has been questioned if he is even the greatest Grenadier or shall come back from back problems continue to hinder his career. But now, whereas Fortunato groaned and grinded up this climb like a wayworn traveler, Bernal darted like an arrow with bright smoldering ferocity. Against the white snow and grey mists, the Pink Jersey glowed like an arriving ship’s lantern on the night sea. This Giro, Egan Bernal has stormed away from the competition, he has emerged from the mists of Zoncolan in a class above the rest. Only Simon Yates was within a long-stone’s throw of him. The Giro d’Italia is now officially Egan’s to lose. Should he go on to win it, it is likely we shall say: “On the Zoncolan, Egan sealed victory of the 104th Giro d’Italia.”

2021 Giro Stage 13: Dante Day at the Giro d’Italia

Ravenna—Verona, 198km

Today Giro d’Italia kept things extremely simple: another pan-flat stage across the Po River Valley, from Ravenna to Verona. The past few days of racing have been ferocious, and tomorrow the Giro shall tackle what is arguably the toughest climb in cycling: the Monte Zoncolan. I begin writing this recap mid-stage (68km to go) for a three-man breakaway is up the road with only a gap of 3:38. In the Po Valley, the Nebraska of Italy with little chance of wind, we must seek out other entertaining content beyond the racing that shall not heat up until the final sprint. Which is actually good, because the Giro made a point that this day would serve as a tribute to a titan of literature. The stage began today in Ravenna, which in addition to being the home of the extraordinary Basilica of San Vitale, it is the place of death and burial of Dante Alighieri. The Giro has come to Ravenna this year as pilgrims of a sort to pay respects to this man, for it is the 700th anniversary of his death; the stage began at the Tomb of Dante. But why pay tribute to this man who has been dead for 700 years? Who was this Dante? As we wait for this sprint to send us home happy, let us revisit a story that is now indispensable from the Western psyche. Let us take a swig of some of the finest high culture. Let us pay tribute to the Italian who wrote the greatest literary work in Italian and medieval history.

Most will have heard some reference in high school or college to Dante’s Inferno. This is the Dante Alighieri we are praising today on the Giro. But of course, the Inferno is only the first third of Dante’s magnum opus: The Divine Comedy. The “Comedy” part of the title only comes from the ancient tradition that if the work does not have a tragic ending, then it must be comedy with some sort of happy ending. The “Divine” part comes from what this is a journey though. Yes, yes, all have heard some strange references about Dante’s trip down, down the circles of Hell in the Inferno seeing mythical, historical, and contemporary figures along with a slew vividly described wicked monsters. But the Comedy end not at the last bottom circle of icy-frozen immutable Hell. The journey continues into the second third of the Comedy: Purgatorio. Still escorted by faithful Virgil, the epic poet of Aeneid fame, Dante must climb Mt. Purgatory. O! Is not Dante not onto something when he compares the path to righteousness like a struggling ascent to a mountaintop? Surely, we cycling fans can all relate to that whether we know it or not. And at the top of Mt. Purgatory? Yes, the gateway to the Heavens, to Paradiso—the last third of the Divine Comedy. Ah! In Paradiso we are treated to many absolutely wonderful tales, conversations, and discourses with a multitude of saintly men and women. Ah! For seven centuries, this work has been treasured by not just Italians, but all mankind. Not only is it devastatingly effective on a theological front, the poetry itself is an unrivaled feast to any lover of literature. Dante’s Comedy is widely considered one of the greatest literary works in human history, a true cultural pinnacle right up there with Michelangelo’s David. And most dear to my heart, it is a proper epic to be counted alongside the Iliad, Beowulf, The Lord of the Rings, and the Grand Tours of Cycling.

Dante Alighieri was a Tuscan, born and raised in 13th Century Florence. He was part of a noble Florentine family that descended back from the Romans. He was one of those Renaissance Men before the Renaissance began—in fact it was thanks to works like Dante’s the Renaissance would begin in Florence a century later. In addition to getting his hand dirty in the ruthless Florentine politics, he was a student of history and the Classics, he tried his hand as a pharmacist, and of course he became an accomplished poet. So accomplished across a range of fields, Dante was self-admittedly not the most humble of men. When he visits the circle of the Prideful in Purgatorio, he predicts—even accepts—when he comes back after life: it is in this circle he shall have to spend the most time in redemptive labor. There is an early scene in the Inferno where Dante goes on to meet five of the great poets of the Classical Greco-Roman world. Already accompanied by Virgil (the greatest of Roman poets), Dante meets Homer (yes, the greatest of the Greeks), Horace, Ovid, and Lucan. To quote from Mark Musa’s translation:

And after they had talked awhile together,

they turned and with a gesture welcomed me,

and at that sign I saw my master smile.

Greater honor still they deigned to grant me:

            They welcomed me as one of their own group,

            So that I numbered sixth among such minds.

Do you see what Dante is doing here? Did I not say he knew he was not too humble? Yes, here he is numbering himself an equal amongst the greatest Classical poets of old. Ah! But here is the real testament to the man: remarkably, in this moment he is actually still under-selling himself. Yes, yes, ask any literary scholar who has read the original works of all these men and surely they will tell you: Lucan? Ovid? Horace? These poets cannot hold a candle to the great Dante! Yes, yes, Dante only numbered himself among the top six, but most would say he is in the top three with Homer and Shakespeare for all-time greatest European poets.

Yet despite all of Dante’s accomplishments disaster struck in 1302, when he was exiled upon pain of death from his native Florence after being unjustly framed in a political scandal. His life was in danger, his property was confiscated, and it was difficult for him to contact his family. He spent the rest of his life wandering in exile. Unlike other political exiles before him who rose violent rebellion and civil war among the political factions, Dante stepped away from it all. It was in his exile that he produced the described Divine Comedy. Instead of destructively bland and routine civil war, Dante simultaneously produced a literary masterpiece and a roadmap for the soul. But instead of the Classic, traditional, affluent, gravitas, high Latin Dante wrote the Comedy in the vernacular; he wrote in his native Tuscan dialect. Because his work became so pervasive and accessible throughout all of Italy, when it became time to standardize the language at Italy’s unification, it was Dante’s Tuscan dialect that would become the official modern-day Italian. Still today in all Italian schools, Dante is what all literature classes progress towards. Yes, yes, Dante Alighieri—for seven centuries—has been unifying Italians much in the same way as our beloved Giro d’Italia does today. We should praise the Giro organizers for fitting such tributes as this into their route.

Alas! Dante never returned to his native Florence, his exiled wanderings came to an end soon after the Comedy’s completion in Ravenna where Stage 12 of the Giro began today. I am not sure what to say to those who tuned in today to talk about cycling, because the content of the stage really was rather unremarkable. Perhaps the organizers wanted us to lyrically wax and muse on Dante. Perhaps they wanted the commentators of the broadcasts to recite excerpts from the Inferno to accompany the uneventful procession of the peloton to the finish in Verona. In my medium, that is what I have done today. But to append this tribute with some relevant content from the modern-day sporting epics, the sprint into Verona was a rewarding view.

After 13 second-places on Giro stages—including one relegation from first place—Giacomo Nizzolo (Qhubeka Assos) finally took his first Giro stage win. The sprint was a simple dead-straight false-flat uphill drag. One of the Jumbo-Visma lead out men, Edoardo Affini, in the final hundreds of meters found himself with a small gap off the front and he went for broke. He tried to ambush all the sprinters and steal a march. And only one man was able to deny him: this heroic Giacomo Nizzolo with the European Champion’s Jersey. He had to scramble and launch his sprint from very far out, but he had the speed to hawk down Affini and come around. He came around cleanly and dominantly—no photo was needed. “Nizzolo, Nizzolo, Nizzolo,” the announcer shouted as he came across the line in victory. Finally, finally he has the win he has been chasing his whole career—a stage of his beloved home Grand Tour. Perhaps if Dante were alive today, he could effortlessly bust out a Giro Comedy on a weekend. He would conserve with all the Italian cycling greats: Coppi, Bartali, Girardengo, Binda, Magni, Gimondi, Moser, Cipollini, and Pantani. But perhaps, Giacomo, your more modest tale with such a rewarding ending would make for a great unlooked for interlude as so often come up in the Divine Comedy. Yes, yes, Nizzolo’s story of unburdening himself of the record of most second-places without ever taking a win—such a tale belongs in a happy-ending comedy.

2021 Giro Stage 12: A Short Treatise on Cycling’s Game Theory (Written)

Siena—Bagno di Romagna, 212km

Let us dare dabble into the strategy and tactics of our dear sport, for though the stage was the longest of the Giro thus far (212km) there are potentially the fewest stories to tell today. It took 72km to establish the breakaway, because all knew this was another day the break would have a great chance to stay away. It was the Giro’s last day in the Apennines, the profile had two long Category3 and two long Category2 climbs, with a descent into the finish after the final Category3. Should a GC team have wanted to tear up the day and set a relentless pace, they might have been able to shell out the other GC pretenders or a top contender off his best day. But with such a fierce hard day yesterday all the GC favorites simply wanted the breakaway to go up the road to contest the day, while they licked their wounds and kept their powder dry for the next big appointment on Saturday at the Monte Zoncolan. Finally, right as the Giro was traveling through Florence, 16 men went up the road in the breakaway, and yes they went on to stay away all day.

Geoffrey Bouchard (AG2R) wearing the Blue Jersey as the King of the Mountains had made the breakaway and he went on to increase his lead in that competition being the first to crest the first Category3 and both Category2 climbs. Strangely, Dries De Bondt (Alpecin-Fenix), the reigning Champion of Belgium, forced Bouchard to sprint for maximum points at every KOM line…and no one can think of a reason why, for Bouchard had scores and scores of KOM Points over De Bondt. There was rain on the stage. We found out who were the poorer wet descenders of the breakaway. The peloton over 10 minutes behind basically called a ceasefire for the day. Bouchard had trouble pulling on and off his raincoat while riding. And that was all that mildly held our attention until the final climb of the day. It was on that climb that the cream of the breakaway rose to the top…somewhat literally, since these were the men climbing up a mountain the fastest. Only four men were really left in contention to take the stage win by this point: the Champion of New Zealand George Bennett (Jumbo-Visma), the Italian Andrea Vendrame (AG2R), the Australian Chris Hamilton (Team DSM), and the Italian Gianluca Brambilla (Trek-Segafredo). They attacked each other on the climb, but over the top with 10km to go, the four were together and they proved evenly matched in climbing legs for the day. They flew down the descent together, but the last 4km were flat and thus it would prove a tactically cagey sprint.

What every new fan of cycling watching their first Grand Tour is blown away by is how much strategy and tactics there can actually be in a bike race from Point A to Point B. It all starts to click for the new fan when they understand the advantage of drafting behind another rider. Then the new fan realizes how much riding on the front of the group factors into the race, or another facet: how beneficial it is to be led out in the sprint for the finish. Then the micro-tactics start to exponentially grow from there until you get to macro-strategies like when Bora-Hansgrohe will ride hard on the front of the peloton all day to drop the pure sprinters. And thus most of the tactics and strategies of cycling can qualify as excellent sporting examples of Game Theory. To give an Investopedia definition, Game Theory is a theoretical framework to conceive social situations among competing players and produce optimal decision-making of independent and competing actors in a strategic setting. In case that definition was too convoluted, let us briefly outline the most famous Game Theory example: The Prisoners’ Dilemma. To quote from this same Investopedia:

“The classic prisoner’s dilemma goes like this: two members of a gang of bank robbers, Dave and Henry, have been arrested and are being interrogated in separate rooms. The authorities have no other witnesses, and can only prove the case against them if they can convince at least one of the robbers to betray his accomplice and testify to the crime. Each bank robber is faced with the choice to cooperate with his accomplice and remain silent or to defect from the gang and testify for the prosecution. If they both co-operate and remain silent, then the authorities will only be able to convict them on a lesser charge of loitering, which will mean one year in jail each (1 year for Dave + 1 year for Henry = 2 years total jail time). If one testifies and the other does not, then the one who testifies will go free and the other will get three years (0 years for the one who defects + 3 for the one convicted = 3 years total). However if both testify against the other, each will get two years in jail for being partly responsible for the robbery (2 years for Dave + 2 years for Henry = 4 years total jail time).”

Will these prisoners work together and each take minimal sentences, or will one try to throw the other under the bus so he may go scot free, or will both try to throw the other under the bus and both will get significant jail time? This is the textbook example of game theory. But if the Prisoners’ Dilemma did not catch your fancy let’s look at the finish of today’s stage with a game theory lens.

At the bottom of the descent, the leading quartet of Trek’s Brambilla, Jumbo’s Bennett, AG2R’s Vendrame, and DSM’s Hamilton were still together. Brambilla was on the front of the group doing a turn, but he soon pulled over to let the next one come through to do his share…but the next one didn’t. Brambilla started waving his arm for the guys to keep rotating, but the game theory, the cat-and-mousing had already begun. Now there was a 5th rider 45 seconds behind that no one wanted to let back into the race for all had worked so hard on the climb. At the same time, none wanted to over work in this endgame, because all wanted to save every last bit of energy. Additionally, the man on the front would be the least prepared to cover or just follow a late attack since he would at that very moment be expending the most energy. Since none would come through, Brambilla teased an attack from the front and the three behind all sat in their seats ready to cover it. But Brambilla did not attack, he swung over to the far side of the road and slowed his pace more than the next two: Hamilton and Vendrame who free-wheeled past Brambilla with no pace about them. George Bennett still chose to sit in 4th of the bunch at the very back. Often, the back of a very small group proves the optimal place to be: it still has the most draft, you can see all of your rivals and jump after any moves, or they cannot quite see when you are going to attack so perhaps you can get a jump on them and give them all the slip.

They were all going at a pedestrian cycling pace now, barely pedaling any of them. Vendrame was stuck on the very front, so he rode on the far-left side of the road so he would only have to be alert to launching attacks from his right. But Vendrame was riding slow enough to rotate around into third position leaving Hamilton on the very front followed by Bennett with 3km to go. Hamilton swung off to the far-right side of the road and Bennett came through to the front. But then Verdrame willing came to the front again—perhaps he did not want such a pedestrian pace, because he knew amongst this group on paper he was the fastest…and he did not want this group to get any bigger with chasers still behind trying to get back into contention. Hamilton rode on the wheel of Vendrame on the far-right side of the road, but George Bennett in third position did not ride right on Hamilton’s wheel. Instead Bennett drifted over to the far left of the road, did he want to be in fourth position? Did he just want to maneuver Brambilla further up, because on paper Brambilla was one of the top two sprinters amongst the group? Additionally, throughout the whole stage Brambilla and Bennett had been exchanging words and staring each other down about unfair-shares of work being done. In that very moment, they were the two prisoners both trying to sell out the other.

For at that very moment, Hamilton attacked from second position knowing Bennett and Brambilla were a couple lengths off his wheel. Vendrame jumped immediately too to get on par with Hamilton. Even Brambilla in fourth position, the second of the second pairing, launched to try and cover the move. But the gap was 20-or-30m and in that instant Brambilla sat up, because he decided it was not worth it to expend the energy to chase down the leading pair while dragging George Bennett behind him. And when Brambilla sat up George Bennett did not counterattack to try to close the gap. And just like that, because of a lack of cooperation Brambilla and Bennett blew their chances for the stage win. Vendrame and Hamilton ahead were going full gas to distance them. Thus Bennett and Brambilla chose to be the prisoners that sell each other out, and both took longer sentences and neither won.

Now there were only two left, and thus the game theory situations and possibilities were greatly reduced, but still there. Hamilton rode on hard, but Vendrame closed the gap and then counterattacked instantly! It was a slightly stranger move for Vendrame to counterattack with 2km to go, because Vendrame was the better sprinter. Vendrame’s logic must have been: who knows who’s a better sprinter after 200km of hard racing; who knows if Brambilla and Bennett will put their squabbles aside and cooperate to still chase us down, because who knows if Hamilton—the on paper worse sprinter—will even work with me. So there was Vendrame attacking for the win, but Chris Hamilton the Australian was up for it and closing back to him. Within 600m they were back together, and Hamilton still even came to the front to share the work to make sure Bennett and Brambilla did not come back. Hamilton understood that if he worked with Vendrame he was basically guaranteed either first or second, both of which are better than third and fourth (Brambilla and Bennett at the moment). But under the Red Kite, the Flamme Rouge, signifying 1km to go, Hamilton took second position, and did not come back to the front; Hamilton would opt to take the second position and Vendrame would have to lead out the sprint. It seems Vendrame was aware of this, he had attacked so it wouldn’t come to this. But since it had, he was prepared to roll the dice from the front so that Brambilla and Bennett could not come back (at this moment, Vendrame also understood either first or second was still better than third or fourth). Additionally, potentially somewhere on the descent, or even earlier his Directors in the team car behind had refreshed themselves with Hamilton’s results to figure out Vendrame was the better sprinter on paper. The papers are never 100% accurate, especially not after 200km of hard racing, but they had told Vendrame the situation…and Vendrame was prepared to chance it. Vendrame set an honest pace so that the two feuding chasers would not return, and Hamilton was glued to his wheel. Hamilton was prepared to leave it late and let Vendrame jump first from the front—for from Vendrame’s peak acceleration would be Hamilton’s best chance to come around. And at 200m to go, Vendrame launched his sprint and Hamilton reacted immediately. Both had played this finish about as well as one could, but only one could cross the finish line first. With all the strategy and tactics played out for 200km now it came down to just 200m to see who was the top sprinter between them, and that last test would decide the winner.

Even from the disadvantageous front, Vendrame had Hamilton’s number. Vendrame beat Hamilton by two or three bike-lengths to take the sprint handedly. Had Hamilton done anything strategically or tactically wrong? Since Hamilton was already on paper the weaker sprinter, his strategy should have been to try to get anyway solo anywhere in the finale. But Hamilton did try that, he just was not physically strong enough to gap Vendrame. Brambilla and Bennett were probably physically strong enough to be there too, but in a poor tactical decision on both their parts, they had waited for the other to do the chasing of the leading pair. And thus they had nullified themselves. Yes, who knows what could have been in a 4-up sprint, but two—potentially out of hot-headed spite—did not do the correct game theory calculations. Two others did and it only came down to physical strength between them. And that strongest one, today Andrea Vendrame, is now a stage winner of the Giro d’Italia.

2021 Giro Stage 11: It Can Be Won (Written)

Perguia—Montalcino, 162km

It was another of those days in cycling that can turn the average fan into a superfan. It was a day where everyone has a story to tell. It was Strade Bianche Day on the Giro d’Italia. Yes, the Giro made a grand foray into the white gravel roads of Tuscany this day. The gravel was looser and dustier at this time of year compared to the March Strade Bianche slot. Many of the General Classification (GC) riders did not think 40km of treacherous gravel belonged in a Grand Tour. This was too much of an unnecessary hazard to their GC campaigns not even if they crashed, but only punctured—so much time they could lose by sheer bad luck. As much as I love them all, one GCN commentator even dared utter the most cringing-cliché in cycling: “This was a day you could not win the Giro, but you sure could lose it.” I do sympathize with the GC men who have trained so hard for this Giro d’Italia for months on end already. It is a shame to see anyone crash out of their biggest appointment prematurely. And it is a great shame too that an untimely puncture and abnormally long bike change could cost one of the top men multiple minutes on the GC.

But allow me to address all of these concerns briefly. To the untimely mechanicals, has not the technological side always been integral and essential to the sport? Are not all the manufacturers trying to create the highest-functioning and most durable equipment? Is it not fitting that there should be a day where the technological aspect too should be put to the test? To the GC riders who find these gravel sections too hazardous, I ask whether or not a Grand Tour should measure the riders in all facets of the sport. I dare mention too Strade Bianche’s original name: the Eroica. Not only is the Eorica the name of the symphony that serves as the Cycling Odysseys theme music, it means “Heroic.” You Grand Tour riders are the modern-day heroes, out there doing what the common man cannot fathom. I would even go so far to say that gravel stages such as this should not even be a big deal, because they should be more common as they were of old. There is a reason in all the cycling photographs from a century ago the riders all have goggles somewhere on their person—most days were dirt-road Strade Bianche days! And finally to address the cringey cliché: if the Giro cannot be won on this day, on what day can it be won? Was the Giro won today is up for debate and to be determined, but it is undeniable that inroads to victory have been further carved out this day.

The day began with an 11-man breakaway being let completely off the leash. The breakaway of non-GC threats had a 14-minute lead when they hit the first gravel section with 70km to go. As I said, all have a story to tell today, but alas! the breakaway’s is not the one this recap shall focus on. As the breakaway entered the whisps and flurries of dust, all heartrates rose and all eyes where enthralled to the screen. It was a recon of what was to come in 14-minutes’ time when the peloton itself hit would these white roads. Ah! But the peloton’s approach was much quicker and heated—all fought to be at the front of the peloton for the white roads where it was the safest. It was a fiercer lead-out than many sprints, it was as fierce a lead-out as into the most critical sections of a Northern Classic (the Trench of Arenberg at Paris-Roubaix, into the Koppenberg at the Tour of Flanders). And who won this great battle among the whole of the peloton into this white gravel? Yes, yes, of course it was the Ineos Grenadiers led by Filippo “Top” Ganna Shatterer of Pelotons. Yes, yes, dirt roads did not stop this jet fighter, upon hitting the gravel he was instantly shattering the peloton within seconds. Second wheel behind Top Ganna was his Grenadier teammate Egan Bernal wearing the Pink Jersey as the leader of the Giro d’Italia. That was the Ineos plan, for Bernal to stay right up front and ride on Ganna’s coattails while the rest of the field was instantly strung out behind. The Grenadiers would not calmly control this day since they were already in Pink. No! This day they would be the creators of chaos as soon as chance allowed. This is what they did. I am not exaggerating when I say within 5-minutes of being on the gravel Ganna had completely denotated the race. Ganna was pulling back a minute of the lead on the breakaway every 2 kilometers in this first section. The dust was ferocious, and the speeds unbridled. Truly, imagine or remember the first car chase in the last Mad Max: Fury Road movie with the massive dust storm, the full throttle engines, the fires and explosions, and the crazy guy playing guitar. Truly, truly, this first section of white gravel today was like that Fury Road. For some of the GC contenders, they did not know how to react to the absolute chaos they were in the midst of. In one long line the riders could be strung out, and yet 30 or 40 seconds could separate the front from the back. And all the time gaps were appearing. Ever, ever this Top Ganna drove on with Bernal in his wake no matter the low-visibility from the dust picked up by the leading cars and motorcycles, no matter the treacherous loose-gravel turns that caught out many. Even the mighty Rockstar Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgohe) had trouble keeping pace with them.

For a whole half-hour Ganna drove it, and he successfully caused a split containing only half the leading GC men. The most prominent man caught back in the second GC group on the road was Remco Evenepoel (Deceuninck-Quickstep) wearing the White Jersey of Best Young Rider, sitting second Overall in the standings to start the day. When the first sector of gravel finally came to an end, his Wolfpack teammates buried themselves riding on the front of this group to close down a 20-second gap to the leading GC group of Ganna and Bernal and many other favorites. With more than 50km still to race, the Quickstep Wolfpack got Remco back into contention, but at the cost of all his teammates—save Joao Almeida. Luckily, for Remco and the rest of the peloton, Top Ganna the Shatterer of Pelotons was also cooked and his work more than finished for the day in service of his team leader wearing the Pink Jersey. With Ganna’s departure, the next gravel section was not as chaotic as it was simply grueling. Most of the section was a trek up a long massive gravel climb that even reached pitches of 16%. Ever it was Egan Bernal and his Grenadiers that were driving the pace—easing up for no one. Though all stayed together, it was becoming very clear who was struggling physically and technically on this brutal stage. Remco Evenepoel was always to be spotted at the back.

And then the drama really began on the third long sector of gravel with 20km to go. On the descent part of the gravel, Remco was the last to start a few bike-lengths behind the last rider. Truly, it was becoming apparent that the young Belgian phenom who came to cycling late as a teenager might not have a comfortable level of off-roading skills. To reiterate, should the Grand Tours not be a test of all facets of the sport? Yes, having always stayed at the back of the groups on all these gravel sectors, Remco had always been expending more energy all day clawing his way back when the peloton contracted once more. And then as this gravel sector rose uphill, Remco found himself with a 5-to-10-second gap he was no longer able to close. The initial gap was communicated to the Grenadiers over the radios, immediately—despite having other Grenadier teammates—Egan Bernal wearing the Pink Jersey drove up the peloton’s pace himself. Bernal knew this was an excellent opportunity to put a massive dent into one of his rivals on terrain that favored him. To reiterate, can one really only lose the Giro this day? Bernal drove on, and everyone else helped when they understood Remco was in trouble—for Remco is a threat to all. Then, but of course, one man—even if he is Remco Evenepoel—was no match verse the 20 or 30 still in the group. Remco was struggling. Perhaps he was bonking. Perhaps it was natural for him to be simply fatigued by this point—mind you, it is already Stage 11 of his very first Grand Tour. At one point in his suffering he was so upset he forcefully took out his earbud not wanting to communicate by radio. His Quickstep teammate Joao Almeida took much too long to drop back to help pace his leader in his most vulnerable moment. It was the most we have seen Remco suffer while racing in his career thus far.

With Remco sitting second overall, all kept pushing the pace to distance him further to unseat him from that high GC position, with 10km to go Remco was a full minute behind. By that point, the gravel had all just about been conquered. The Eroica warriors were clad in dust from foot to head—ah! but how they still glistened in the sun’s rays! Yet even then were being threatened for the race was right on the border of a storm, and the brutality of the day was not done yet. The riders still had to tackle a Category3 climb that crested with 4km left in the stage. All the GC men that were left and had anything left tried launching something on that climb to find some separation. Astana’s Aleksandr Vlasov, EF’s Hugh Carthy, and Trek’s Guilio Ciccone all tried something. But those attacks were to no avail. The only one to find great separation was Bora’s Emanuel Buchmann who steadily raced away up the road while the rest counterattacked each other from behind. Just as it looked like Buchmann would crest the top of the climb with about a score of seconds in hand on his GC rivals, the race’s leader pressed his advantage. Egan Bernal in the Pink Jersey attacked over the top of the climb to distance himself from all his man GC rivals and catch Emanuel Buchmann out front. The two rode away on the final descent, where only 3 minutes before the pair who fought out the victory had passed as well; yes, 11 minutes of the breakaway’s advantage had been eaten up in the course of 70km. Bernal and Buchmann came around the final turn with 200m to go to face a final 10% ramp. Both dashed up it knowing every second surely counts in this race for the GC. But even in that final 200m, Egan took 2 or 3 seconds on Buchmann. Some-25 seconds later came Vlasov, Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Simon Yates (Team BikeExchange), and Tobias Foss (Jumbo-Visma). Hugh Carthy came in 32 seconds behind Bernal; Guilio Ciccone 1:45; Movistar’s Marc Soler about 2:00 with Trek’s veteran Vincenzo Nibali. And the young phenom on his first bad day, Remco Evenepoel in White, came in about 2:10 down on Egan Bernal in Pink. Yes, yes, surely Egan Bernal has not yet won this Giro—it is now but only half over. And yet, clearly Egan and the Grenadiers had a fantastic day as he put time into all of his top rivals. Yes, perhaps in 10 days’ time we shall even dare to say this was the day the Giro was won. To append this recap, I must at least mention the breakaway that successfully stayed away. This was a day none of them will ever forget. This was the day they all outran the monstrous chaos behind. If ever there was a special day to be in the vanguard of the Giro d’Italia, it was this day. There was no clear favorite amongst the group. All gave this rare victory opportunity their best shot. Attacks and counterattacks were being launched and fired. It was a fine and beautiful battle. Truly, it was more beautiful than the GC, because with less bodies on the road to keep track of the scenery could be better soaked in. The rolling green hills. In one direction, a perfect blue sky with gentle clouds clearly painted by an artist of divine talent. The white gravel was beautiful, and even the dust it kicked up. And the best scenes—save the finish—were the iconic Tuscan tall and narrow, green and bushy cypress trees that for sections bordered the gravel roadsides and stunning vineyards. And then the finishing line shot was beyond iconic: where UAE’s Alessandro Covi bowed his head in exhaustion and defeat while Mauro Schmid had both fists in the air in celebration of his victory. Surely, such an image shall be treasured by Schmid’s Qhubeka Assos team as one of their greatest victories. I must say I was totally blow away seeing that uphill drag lined with excited Italians in a beautiful Tuscan village with the perfect clouds and blue sky above and the distant shot of the rolling green hills far behind where all the fierce battle was done today. It was beautiful. Perhaps something only Italy could achieve. What was that catchphrase billing? “The Hardest Race in the Most Beautiful Place.” The Giro knocked that one out of the park today.