2021 Giro d’Italia Preview

In the cycling world, the month of May means only one thing. In fact, the month of May could honestly be renamed “Giro,” and no cycling fan would bat an eye. May is upon us once more, and thus we gear up for the first three-week Grand Tour of the long cycling summer: the Giro d’Italia. Most top-level cycling races, and most of all the three Grand Tours, can be labeled or characterized as “epic.” But alas! such a word in cycling is too overused and no longer gets the description-job done. As I have worked my way through writing race descriptions this year to serve as my previews of what to look for, I have been pleasantly surprised to recall or even better understand just how different each race really is. All have their own individual personality: for example, all the Flandrien Classics are siblings and yet none are fraternal twins. But with the cycling Spring completed, it is time for the biggest descriptions and previews of all, for the Grand Tours. They are the longest races, they produce the most content and drama, to tell each tale takes over twenty chapters. They are the summer Blockbusters of the cycling world, and these tales put to shame whatever the Disney and Marvel think-tanks are producing nowadays. But if we assume the descriptor “epic” is a given for all, what is the difference between them? For anyone who has seen the Grand Tours surely this is a hilarious question, but to articulate and pinpoint what separates the Giro from the Tour and Vuelta can be a tough business. Allow me to try my hand.

The Giro d’Italia outright triumphs all other races in passionate romance, even Jane Austen would admit her novels have been bested. The Tour de France is the cycling race that has transcended the sport and still captures new international imaginations. But once those allured imaginations check out the entire cycling calendar, all understand, all “get it”: there is something special about the Giro. The Giro is the most dearly beloved of all races. It is where the emotions ooze, bubble over, and run absolutely wild like gazelles on the lush plain. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the Giro is the first Grand Tour of the year, the Giro simply has the benefit to be the first three-week journey all strap in for each year. It is the first race of the year where the viewers’ lifestyles change for a fortnight-and-half, because all are so enthralled and in-tune with the drama going on in Italy—never are the daily tales and chapters far from the mind. True enough about the lifestyle change, but that is a positive trait all the Grand Tours share in common. The simple first calendar spot cannot be the right cause of so much Giro love, for all felt the same romantic feeling for the 2020 October Giro that came after the Tour. For decades long before as well, the Vuelta was in the Spring before the Giro and from what I can gather the Italians’ race still had this same supreme passionate allure. The correct answer has already been said, the passionate romance is forged by combining the drama and title location. The RCS organizers have often billed the Giro as “The Hardest Race in the Most Beautiful Place.” Not bad, not bad at all. In fact, that is probably an accurate statement. Were one to pit entire country vs entire country for best cycling scenery, I think the majority would concur Italy firmly wins. Most Beautiful Place? Check. All would agree too, often the Giro route is longer and tougher than the Tour’s on paper. Often the Tour is ridden faster, but the Giro’s stages are longer, their mountains higher and more plentiful, the May weather cooperates less often; thus the Giro’s route is surely a more grueling affair. So, the Hardest Race? Check. But most importantly, because the Tour is the transcendent-ultimate and most important: the race and the racing becomes more serious and uptight. Whereas at the Giro, all have high hopes and aspirations with less pressure, the racing is much less constricted and the routes are designed to throw up surprises. Thus honor and prestige factor in less at the Giro, and the racing is filled with unbridled passion to win for the simple love of racing. It cannot go unmentioned as well how great the Italian fans are. Every town is decked out in Pink decorations to match the race leader’s maglia rosa. Every fan cheers not just because the Giro d’Italia is passing by, but because a bike race is passing by and these riders need support and encouragement. Pedalare! Pedalare! Yes, Italian cycling history is so illustrious that even though other sports have eclipsed it as the national-pastime, still all Italians have an intimate special place in their hearts for cycling. From the Grand Tour star of his generation to lonely old vagabond touring the country on his bicycle, all cyclists are loved and cared for by the Italians. Yes, the passion of the locals fuels the passion of the riders and that fuels the passion of the fans. Some think it is a “hipster” thing to say the Giro d’Italia is their favorite race, I think nothing could be further from the truth. Were all hardcore cycling fans to pick one race as their favorite: the Giro would have the highest tally of votes. Were such a survey conducted in May, the Giro would have 100% of the votes. Yes, “The Hardest Race in the Most Beautiful Place,” consistently the Giro lives up to such a title…and yet, like all the Grand Tours, no two Giri are the same.

This year the Giro is a reversal of the ancient Classic Milano-Torino. Typically on a normal year, it only takes the riders some four to five hours to traverse the distance of this Classic that more-or-less lives up to its roadmap name. But this year, the Giro shall start in Turin, and finish in Milan. And instead of an extended afternoon ride between them, the route shall meander around much of Italy for a full three weeks before finally finishing in Milan. After a short opening Time Trial in Turin, the route strikes out to cut across Italy for the Adriatic Coast tackling a few hills, but mostly providing the sprinters early opportunities to get off the mark well. Down the Adriatic coast the sprinters and puncheurs shall have their fun, perhaps even one or two General Classification (GC) men as well. The race shall travel to the lower-end of the calf muscle or even the Achilles’ tend of the boot that is Italy. But that will be the furthest South the race ventures this year. From there the route turns North and works its way up the spine of Italy, the Apennine Mountains. This shall be the exciting backdrop of that second-weekend Stages 8 and 9, where surely the GC men will be doing full proper battle after a week of skirmishing already completed. But after Stage 10 the first Rest Day in Perugia shall come and be O! too short. After little Rest, the peloton will be in for a rude awakening as they enter into Tuscany for a Strade Bianche “White Roads” gravel stage. Depart from Siena the day after and cross the Apennines again. By Stage 13, the surrounding shall seem familiar, for the race will be back in the flatter Po Valley having completed their weeklong Southern loop. And yet, relentlessly, the race shall B-line to the far Northeast of Italy to have a summit finish on the Stage 14, that third Saturday, on the mighty Monte Zoncolan—O! truly, truly, it is impossible to over-exaggerate how excruciatingly brutal such a climb is, it stands shoulder-to-titanic-shoulder with the mighty Angliru for toughest climbs in cycling. The following day shall involve a hilly foray border-crossing into Slovenia, but the Second Rest Day shall not come until after a High Mountain Stage 16 on that third Monday where the race shall traverse the famous Passo Pordoi and the Passo Giau among others. The Second Rest Day shall be Tuesday, and after another mountain stage on Wednesday, the race emerges from the mountains once more and enter the Po Valley for the third time of asking. Strangely enough, it shall loop to the South of Milan, perpendicularly cut across the route between Turin and Milan to enter the Italian and Swiss Alps for the finale of the race. Stages 19 and 20 shall surely be exciting mountain days, O! let us hope the race for the maglia rosa is still open by that point, and finely balanced. Let us even dare to hope the race is not sewn up after the summit finish on the penultimate Stage 20. For Stage 21 into Milan is not a coronation procession, but a 30km Individual Time Trial—truly there is no better way to end the Giro than with a dramatic Time Trial as has been the case multiple times in the last decade alone. But thus the route is quickly outlined with its loops, quasi-figure-eights, and zig-zags. The Turin-Milan route is unorthodox, and anything but point-to-point like its Milano-Torino one-day Classic counterpart. And yet, it shall still be a satisfying journey, with many new tales worth telling, and for multiple men it shall be the journey of a lifetime.

The only former Overall Winner who shall line up for this edition of the Giro d’Italia is the veteran Vincenzo Nibali the Shark of Messina (Trek-Segafredo). Alas! Alas! He has suffered a broken wristed in the recent weeks and it is remarkable he can even handle and ride a bike so quickly again; but even without the broken wrist to have shot for the podium would have been a tall order to be begin with for so many strong young riders are in attendance at this race. The top favorites in many eyes and especially the odds makers’ are Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), Simon Yates (Team BikeExchange), and Remco Evenepoel (Deceuninck-Quickstep). Having won the 2019 Tour de France, Egan Bernal is the highest favorite, but he comes to the race with question marks. He was unable to defend his Tour title in 2020 due to aching back problems that we have all been led to believe are caused by taxing and relentlessly strenuous race—aka a cycling Grand Tour. In the early season, he showed he was coming along well, especially with his unexpected Strade Bianche podium finish. It is fair to assume he shall be on top form for this biggest May objective, but will the back hold up? In my judgement, Simon Yates has even more question marks. He was the man of the match, the first name on everyone’s lips during the 2018 Giro. O! He dazzled us all with those three stage wins, and he was close to two or three more. He was set to topple and upstage the mighty giants of Tom Dumoulin (now of maybe Jumbo-Visma) and Chris Froome (now of Israel Start-Up Nation), but he imploded in the final week in one of the worst unraveling in recent memory. He returned for redemption in 2019 only to see his form desert him by the end of the first week. And in 2020, he caught COVID in the first week of the race and had to abandoned. Yates’ love affair with the Giro is clear, but shall the love finally be requited this year? Or is more heartbreak waiting in the wings? And then, of this trio of top favorites, we come to the rider who has more question marks than anyone else entering this race. Remco Evenepoel, still currently the youngest of the young superstar titans on the rise perhaps destined to be the greatest of them all, is riding his first race since falling off a multiple-story-high bridge last August at il Lombardia. Besides the inside-est of insiders, none know where his form is at. Even the insiders cannot predict how he shall fair over the full three weeks of his first Grand Tour. The Belgian Quickstep team seem to be bringing a strong supporting GC squad, but do they have the experience to back Evenepoel up? Will Evenepoel be on such top form that he is even the undisputed team leader? How will Quickstep morale fair without being able to count on multiple sprint stage wins, for the first time in no-one-knows-how-long? Were anyone a betting man, surely this Giro is the time to stop being one. I do think one of those three shall win, but with question marks on all of them perhaps a rider from the second tier having the race of his life could pull off the Dark Horse upset. Aleksandr Vlasov (Astana-Premier Tech) has been a solid rock this Spring, if admittedly not as sensational as 2020. For Trek-Segafredo, Nibali may be too old and injured to fight for the podium, but is Bauke Mollema? What about the other Trek hopeful Guilio Ciccone? All known Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) will be there on the long high Italian passes, but can he produce two even semi-decent Time Trials to stay in contention? Shall Romain Bardet find revitalized success with his new Team DSM? What about his Team DSM teammate Jai Hindley who was runner-up at the Giro last year? Or what of Quickstep’s Joao Almeida who spent such a long stint in Pink last year? Can Bora’s Emmanuel Buchmann bounce back from a disappointing 2020 Tour? Or can EF’s Hugh Carthy build upon his 2020 Vuelta podium finish? What of Israel Start-Up Nation’s Dan Martin, or Jumbo-Visma’s George Bennett, or Movistar’s Marc Soler? All are surely capable of Top 10 finishes, but can any of them exceed expectations and rise even higher? What if I have not even yet named the rider that shall win the Giro, could we see yet another meteoric shooting star rise to the top of the sport so unexpectedly?

The GC men have been laid out, but what of the sprinters? I dare say three or four of the stage profiles appear to be so flat it cannot be believed—they are so flat, it is seems the peloton shall not even climb a few-hundred-meters overpass. Yes, such news as that makes all the sprinters’ ears perk up. On paper, the fastest and top pure sprinter must now be Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal). The bigger question for me is not shall he win a stage, I predict he shall win multiple; the bigger question for me is will he finish the race? Supposedly Ewan is targeting stage wins in all three Grand Tours, an impressive feat to be sure—if he can pull it off. But as a demanding fan who sees the Grand Tours as modern adventure Odysseys, I prefer to see the riders struggle to finish the Grand-y instead of strategically stopping early to gear up for the next bigger fish—leave such antics to the old Cipollini. Ah! But a sprinter who shall surely hope to finish is the man returning for his second Giro in a row, Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe). Many think he will finish, for many expect him to target the maglia ciclamino Points Jersey. (Author’s Note: After some rapid Google searches, the Ciclamino color does not seem to translate easily into English, but the jersey appears to be Purple in my eyes). Italian Elia Viviani shall surely wish to finally take his first big win for his Cofidis team. Meanwhile for Qhubeka Assos, Italian Giacomo Nizzolo rolls in coming off a very respectable Spring; surely, he shall wish to capitalize on home roads and take a memorable Grand Tour victory for his team. Pure sprinter Dylan Groenewegen (Jumbo-Visma) is back from his long suspension for his first race—probably the only rider in the Giro who has gone a longer gap without racing than Remco Evenepoel. Tim Merlier and his second division Alpecin-Fenix team shall make their Grand Tour debut; this shall be fast-sprinting Merlier’s chance to prove his mettle against all the already named big guns. And finally, for UAE Fernando Gaviria shall be their designated sprinter. He has been in quite a funk for a few years with injuries and COVID, can he finally start to rebound here?

And who else are destined to round out the list of champions? Perhaps the Time Trial victories shall be battles between Filipo “Top” Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers), Remi Cavagna (Deceuninck-Quickstep), Victor Campenaerts (Qhubeka Assos), and perhaps other surprise challengers in the almost Prologue-length opening Stage. Beyond the Time Trials, it becomes hard to name names who might win from the breakaway on the mountain stages or which puncheurs shall feature on the hilly stages. Surely, Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal) will take marked aim at two or three stages ideal for a breakaway coup. And when was the last time Diego Ulissi (UAE) did not go well on an uphill sprint finish in his native Grand Tour? But beyond these basic examples, who shall have breakaway and solo up-start success depends if the team has a GC leader in contention to support. For example, if injury or illness were to end Landa’s GC campaign, I could see Bahrain’s Pello Bilbao, Damiano Caruso, Gino Mader, Matej Mohoric, and Jan Tratnik declare Open Season and launch a shotgun of attacks that should net them at least one or two stage victories. The same is true with Bora-Hansgrohe with Cesare Benedetti, Maciej Bodnar, Matteo Fabbro, Felix Grossschertner, and Daniel Oss if they do not have to support Buchmann or Sagan. How much leash shall some of the Grenadiers have? The likes of Pavel Sivakov, Gianni Moscon, Jhonathan Narvaez, and Dani Martinez; remember during the off season when the Grenadiers declared they wished to “race like Brazil.” Surely, in the first Grand Tour since that statement they shall be put to the test. What of Team DSM? Are they a team with two GC leaders or a team of eight synergetic opportunists? Can Rudy Molard get some results for Groupama-FDJ? What about Gianluca Brambilla for Trek-Segafredo? We could continue musing more and more on all the hopeful rising-stars or lone wolves fighting for a day of glory, but let us end and wrap this preview up.

Thus it is time to begin the end of this preview with my official 2021 Giro d’Italia Overall Winner prediction, the man I think shall wear the maglia rosa in Milan and lift aloft that Lovely Infinite Trophy. It is a tough choice this year, for all have their potential pitfalls and risks on fairly clear display. Thus I choice to take the favorite with the least question marks, I predict Egan Bernal the Ineos Grenadier shall bounce back from his subpar 2020 to win the 2021 Giro d’Italia. May it be another memorable and beloved edition of the Giro d’Italia. May all Muses in whatever form they exist work their magic or reach out to the ones with power to do so. May it be a true Odyssey that O! so inspires this show. It is the eve of yet another Grand Tour where our lifestyles change for the next three weeks. For these coming weeks, our hearts and imaginations shall be in Italy, watching a daily 21-chapter story of how heroes rise and fall, how champions cement their legend, how seemingly ordinary men pull off deeds worthy of eternal fame, and how intimately romantic many riders’ and a country’s and an international fanbase’s love for one race can be.

An Author’s Note: I will go “chalk” on Stage 1 and take Ganna to win the Stage 1 Time Trial. Boring pick and his biggest goal is clearly Tokyo, but I think he will still be motivated to win on home roads and wear the maglia rosa again for the second time in his career.

2021 TDR: A Proper Hardmen’s War (Written)

The Prologue was dominated by the Ineos Grenadiers: Rohan Dennis, Geraint Thomas, and Richie Porte swept the podium—even World Champion Time-Trialist Grenadier teammate Filipo “Top” Ganna could not ride amongst them. The Rockstar Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) took a solid sprint win on Stage 1. After finishing second to Sagan the day before, Sonny Colbrelli finished off the job for his Bahrain-Victorious team on Stage 2. And it had been threatening all week, but finally the torrential rains really started to pour on Stage 3—all the bounteous green beauty of Switzerland must come from somewhere.

It was a long day, a brutal day. It takes a certain type of man to perform well in such conditions. The breakaway was dominated by Swissmen, but even they had their fair share of troubles on home roads. Most notably, in the Swiss Champion’s Jersey with its White Cross and Red Background, Stefan Kung (Groupama-FDJ) slid out on one of the many treacherous white lines while cornering one of the downhill turns. From the apex of the turn he slid across the road at the same speed he was going on his bicycle: truly, in crashes like these it looks as if the riders are slipping out on ice. He slid all the way into a padded traffic sign; should the padding not have been there for the race, surely he would have wrapped himself up and racked his body badly on the pole. But Stefan Kung is one of these title hardmen, within seconds he bounced right up walking around and checking over his body. Perhaps, had he not crashed he could have gone on to win the day, instead that honor and duty would fall upon someone else’s shoulders. Kung’s late breakaway escapee was caught within 10 km of the line, and to many people’s surprise it was Movistar’s Marc Soler who solo counterattacked. It was one of those classic perfect attacks where none reacted right away so that Soler got a solid few seconds’ gap, and that was all he needed. Soler went full gas. He adeptly took the proper risks in the wet, for he rode away not just for the stage win, but for the Leader’s Jersey as well. It was impressive to see this Southern Catalan ride so well in the wet and rain where so many Spaniards have wilted before. It was exciting as well, for in one week’s time Soler starts his Giro campaign for Movistar in Turin. Finally after an early season of weeklong race after weeklong race where Soler quite frankly looked very bad and dropped far too early on all the mountains, finally it seems he is coming onto good form at the perfect time. Soler is 27-years-old, but his progression has stalled out in the last few years. Movistar is starving for its next superstar for their talisman Alejandro Valverde is retiring soon. On this Stage 3, Marc Soler proved he is ready to launch his bid for Giro glory. It was a classic day of brutal conditions that sap all energy reserves and the spirit of all the riders, it was classic day at the Tour de Romandie. And yet, as is so surprisingly often the case: the next day’s stage, Stage 4, was even worse.

 Yes, yes, to ride the hilly Stage 3 in the extreme wet and rain surely does take it out of the riders; it was an effort that leaves them tired for the next week, because they dug so deep. And that of course is the beauty of cycling stage races: what you can do on one day is test enough, but the citizens of Romandie and the cycling world wish to see what these riders can do six days in a row. Give us the same harsh conditions of Stage 3, but now let’s do some proper high mountains including a finish to ski resort 2000m above sea level. The day before, second place on Stage 3 behind the solo escapee Soler was EF’s Magnus Cort from a reduced bunch, including both Sagan and Colbrelli and the top GC men. Thus, when all turned on the livestream of Stage 4, it was shocking to see Magnus Cort at the front of affairs with a 5-minute lead in the breakaway on this mountain stage. What legs of iron he must have had to get second place from a sprint the day before in the went and rain, and then come back the next day for long-range breakaway heroics. But fair golden-haired-and-mustached Magnus is a Dane, and many from this greatest generation of Danish cyclists have shown us that none should be underestimate—especially in such brutal conditions. Yes, Magnus Cort proved his mettle once again, for on the climbs he rode all his breakaway companions off his wheel. There was an improperly executed neutralized descent of the breakaway and peloton after the penultimate climb and before the summit finish to the Thyon 2000 ski resort. Magnus and his breakaway companions seemed to have still taken the descent faster and started the final climb with an extra two minutes. With that controversial extra advantage, it really did look like Magnus Cort could potentially pull this off and steal the stage. O! But how brutal was that final climb: a full 20km with a 7% average gradient. Well before that point, Cort and many of the rest of the riders were having trouble with their dexterity. Frozen fingers and bulky gloves were a factor this day: hindering grabbing food from the pockets and even switching gears and handling the bike properly. Magnus managed to take down a last gel halfway up the final climb, but his fingers were even too frozen to put the wrapper back in his pocket; to avoid the littering penalty he had to shove the wrapper to driver of the camera bike. Yes, it was one of those days where the cameramen had to wipe clear the droplets from the lenses every two minutes. The scenes being shown did not so much seem to be the now standard HD pictures, but instead a fluid and live-moving water-color painting. Cort’s bright pink EF jersey blended at the edges straight into the black tarmac, the green and brown trees and foilage, and the light grey misty skies above. Had the climb only been some 15km, perhaps Magnus Cort would have played a blinder, but alas! it was 20km. Cort had put himself in the position he needed to be to win, he had done all he could, but he was spent. He was laboring on the bike, he was bonking—not least because of the energy required to stave off the harsh elements all around him. Inside the last 5km, the other hardmen who had been chasing him down all day finally caught this daring Dane: Magnus Cort the Bornholm Blonde.

As was already alluded to, the descent before this final 20km climb had been neutralized, but it seemed that turned to the breakaway’s advantage for that gave them extra time up the climb. There were strange suspicions a foot that the times up the climb would be used to decide the winner, not who crossed the line first. To make matters more confusing, the devices tracking the gap between the breakaway and the peloton of favorites behind ended up going haywire for most of the final climb. Thus it was a surprise with 4.3km to go when Michael Woods (Isreal Start-Up Nation) put his Ardennes flying-form to good use and attacked his rival GC favorites, and then suddenly caught Cort the Bornholm Blonde who was thought to have still been at least a minute ahead up the road. BikeExchange’s Lucas Hamilton and AG2R’s Ben O’Connor—both young promising Australian Grand Tour talents—rode with Woods for a while, but both fell away. Woods caught Magnus Cort and put an end to the neutralization controversy for now surely the GC men would win this day with no breakaways interfering. Michael Woods the Canadian who was flying in La Fleche and Liege just a few days ago was showing off his Northern heritage here in cold Romandie. Yes, the cold did not seem to be affecting him much, it seemed all the dexterity was there and enough energy to carry this momentum to the line. O! Truly, he said of his Liege performance, he was on the form of his life for this year’s Ardennes campaign. He did not turn up an Ardennes victory; but surely a stage or even the leader’s jersey in Romandie would make a great constellation prize, and the flying form was clearly still there. He flew and flew out of the saddle up this Thyon climb. O! But by this point there was un-intelligible chaos behind, and only one man was rising above it to really race after Woods ahead.

All of sudden behind, Marc Soler wearing a Movistar jacket over the Yellow leader’s jersey was on the front of a very select group of favorites seeming to ride in damage control mode. Had another big GC favorite attacked, and the cameras hadn’t caught it? Indeed, one mighty one had. Yes, yes, a mighty one, and one of the hardest men of the peloton by all accounts. He was used to the harsh wet conditions that are so typical of the green British Isles. He has had a fair-share of tough races in his day. In 2013, on the opening stage of the Tour de France he crashed heavily and fractured his pelvis. He literally could not climb onto his bike unsupported…but he still could ride; he rode that entire Tour with a fractured pelvis. Yes, yes, he is a man known to crash not often because of bad bike handling, but from the sheerest rotten luck: knocked by a rider into a telephone pole on a descent at the 2015 Tour, crashed out of the 2017 Giro when hit by a motorcycle, even at the 2020 October Giro in Sicily he slipped on a rogue water-bottle in the neutral zone and fractured his pelvis again. He rode that whole stage extremely injured, but still only lost ten minutes riding up the lord of all Sicilian climbs, the mighty Mt. Etna, before abandoning the race. Yes, just from these famous low-points you know of whom I speak: the Welshman, 2018 Tour de France champion, Geraint Thomas—the heart and soul of the Ineos Grenadiers. Since that 2018 Tour, he has not won a race: in the shadow of Ineos Tour-winning teammate Egan Bernal in 2019, and an injury-plagued 2020 are the explanations. But here in Romandie, in the wet and cold, and in the high altitude, he was flying once more. Thomas’ big appointment is a rendezvous with the Tour once more in July, but here he was showing the form is coming along extremely well. Yes, yes, a time or two, Geraint has been compared to Thomas the Tank Engine chugging up the hills. Ah! But on this day Thomas seemed an even more powerful and bigger steam engine than Thomas the tiny Tank.

Geraint Thomas, the greatest cyclist the Welsh have ever produced, hawked down Michael Woods with 2.2km to go. Thomas then tried to blow right around Woods, but it would be tougher than that; Woods stayed in Thomas’ wheel. Thomas the Bigger Tank Engine did all the pacing: metronomic, relentless; distancing all rivals besides Woods and just out of range the scrappy Ben O’Connor daring enough to claw his way back into contention. These two riders, and even Ben O’Connor behind were now shooting up the General Classification. The climb at no point ever let up, it was a proper fight all the way to the finish, but with one kilometer remaining all knew it would be a two-man sprint at the line. Thomas had time in hand to take the leader’s jersey ahead of Woods whether he won this sprint or not, he would need only to finish next to him. But as stated, Geraint Thomas has not won a race since the 2018 Tour, surely he would love to win this brutal Romandie Queen Stage! With 200m to go, Woods came around Thomas to sprint for victory. But Geraint Thomas did not lay down without a fight. With 150m to go, they made a 180 degree turn on the final switchback, Thomas actually accelerated to the front once more. The final 100m was a complete uphill drag, and the legs were screaming after such a long finishing climb and hard day of racing. With 50m to go it was neck-and-neck! Woods was already standing up smashing his pedals towards the line; Thomas stood up as well—

O! heartbreak! Thomas lost control of the bike and crashed hard on his shoulder. Woods rode to the line in victory. So dazed, so fatigued from the effort and now the crash, it took Thomas an extra 22 seconds to finish. Thus Mike Woods won not only the stage, but went into the race leader’s jersey as well. Upon reviewing the replays, clearly as Thomas began to stand up in his seat for the very last effort to the line: he raised his right hand off the handlebars completely and lost control of the bike. Truly, consider how hard it is for anyone to sprint out of the saddle with only one hand on the handlebars. Thomas faced the press after the stage despite or because of the incident. He took it all in stride and like the hardman he was, just rolling with it and poking fun at himself. Thomas said he had lost so much feeling in his hands by that final 50m that when he took his hand off the bars, he thought he was switching into a bigger gear. O! O! Talk about a classic rotten luck Thomas mistake. Talk about classic Romandie weather. Thomas had garnered some physical bruises and emotional bruises of embarrassment on that stage. O! But I told you, he is one of the hardest of hardmen.

The final day was a Time Trial, Thomas’ bread-and-butter ever since he was a youngster on the track. Not only did Thomas overturn Michael Wood’s GC lead—for Woods is not a notable time-trialist—he almost won the stage outright. Thus it was from the jaws of embarrassment, Geraint Thomas snatched a great victory and won this war of the hardmen; his first win since his 2018 Tour. His big focus is the 2021 Tour this year, and he is now on great progression to have a sterling tilt at it, and give some certain Slovenians some trouble.

Tour de Romandie (Written Thoughts)

Finally, we come to the last prestigious World Tour race of the Spring, the Tour de Romandie. After this comes May and the first Grand Tour of the Summer: the Giro d’Italia. This last weeklong World Tour stage race serves as a final tune-up opportunity for many who shall be the top contenders for this Giro race. And yet many top contenders come here too to gage form and hone General Classification (GC) race-craft for the Tour de France to come later in July. For those doing the Giro, this is no light last test to unwind the legs. O! How serious business the Tour de Romandie surely is. Romandie, the most Eastern French-speaking part of Switzerland. It is the region of Switzerland closest to that iconic and idealized Lake Geneva. Yes, yes, you know of course what I will point out next: Switzerland is well known for its picturesque mountain vistas. And like any good cycling race, of course, the route enters in and traverses these mountain passes of most proper Alps. Usually with a Prologue or Team Time Trial, one or two sprint stages, always at least two high mountain days, and usually a proper time trial to end the race as well: this usually proves to be a balanced GC test. But that is not what makes this a last brutal preparation race. What does you ask? How often does a non-skier plan vacations to a mountain range in Spring? Never? And why is that? Because the weather is O! so terrible.

I must say, I think the Tour de Romandie takes the cake for the race where a rider is most likely without fail each year to need a rain jacket and knee-warmers. The over-under is typically set at 2.5 days for being soaked-to-the-bone wet and chilled, and all shall lose feeling in their fingers for at least one multi-hour stretch no matter how cutting-edge their gloves are. This race is brutal, this race is not for the faint of heart. This is a race where a cyclist compiles many war-stories to tell the grandkids around a cozy fireplace at Christmastime three decades later. This is a race where the local Swissmen ride with twice their usually ferocity. It is a race where a lucky up-and-coming youngster might find himself in a lone breakaway and he rides to the line holding all off behind and thus makes a name for himself—usually that happens on one of the torrential downpour days. Yes, yes, this is a race where hardmen can go head-to-head to prove who is the toughest of all. Truly, I have no idea at its inception why they thought holding a race in Springtime Switzerland was ever a good idea. But for its whole history it has been held either in early May or this late April slot.

Its creation came about in 1947 surely with renewed hope as Europe began putting away the horrible memories of the Second World War. A large chunk of the World Tour races can date back their origins to this early postwar period, but one that is older is Switzerland’s other World Tour stage race: the Tour de Suisse (“Tour of Switzerland”) held each June a fortnight before the Tour de France. The Tour de Suisse was created in the 1930s and can be enjoyed by the whole country, but apparently a decade later the French-speaking people of Romandie felt the need to have their very own special race. In the context of cycling history, Romandie is an extremely treasured region: for it holds the honor to house the Union Cycliste Internationale (the “UCI,” cycling’s governing body) headquarters in Aigle, Switzerland. Every year the race makes a point to ride past it on one of its stages. But I daresay, there is a more romantic ancient piece of cycling history from this region that warms the heart more than the bureaucratic headquarters of the cycling world. In my estimation, Romandie can at least lay a claim for hosting the oldest bike race in the world (a title commonly agreed upon to be held by Liege-Bastogne-Liege).

All the way back in 1879, these citizens of Romandie organized the first edition of the Tour du Lac Leman: a one-day some 170km race around Lake Geneva. The race was held most years all the way up until the mid-1950s. Since then it has been basically defunct, and not at all a big objective on the calendar; it is for this reason that Liege though first run in 1892 but still consistently for most years since can claim to be the oldest race on the calendar. But O! how I would love to see this Tour du Lac Leman brought back! Either have it take the closest perimeter route around the Lake and it can simply be a Sprinters’ Classic (I deem they are in need of more again), or even send it on a long-windy adventure in the mountains surrounding this beautiful lake. Since the Tour of Romandie starts on the Tuesday and finishes on the next Sunday, why not put it on the Saturday or Sunday before? On the Saturday, it would not clash with Liege, were the Ardennes Classics to all find a better home in the cycling summer post-Tour, on the Sunday would be open begging for a great Classic. All would tune in just for the beautiful Lake Geneva scenery, and as I said the Sprinters’ are losing all their big Classics, this could be given again to put them back on the map.

Ah! Yes, Romandie, Romandie, truly you are a diamond in the rough of cycling history. Your cycling traditions are ancient, still you wield political might, but O! how brutal is your race and alas! always overshadowed by your big brother the Tour de Suisse. Despite its little brother Swiss status, the Tour de Romandie has been won by so many of the biggest names since its inception: Kubler, Bartali, Koblet, Merckx, Gimondi, Thevenet, Zoetemelk, Saronni, Hinault, Roche, Froome, and Roglic. As stated, despite the brutal weather conditions of late April, it is great final preparation for the Giro, or a check point in progression for the Tour to come. And though it is not as flashy or eye-catching as many of the other World Tour stage races, it still provides another great week of racing in itself: compelling drama and enthralling viewing all week. O! O! How wrong it would be to ever underestimate this Tour de Romandie.

2021 LBL: Intangibles Pay Out

At the end of my Fleche recap I made a pair of quick picks for Liege. I picked one favorite to win overall, and I picked my “cheeky side-bet” with over 100-to-1 odds who I thought had the most outside of chances to win. Famously as I have said on many previous occasions, I am no good at predicting races, because I always just end up picking a scenario that mildly has a chance of happening and it is the scenario that I want to see happen most. As I have also already stated before, this reached its most extreme low point when I predicted that in 2017 if Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) could stay within a minute of the leaders on La Planche del Belles Filles, then he would do a deep run in Yellow a la Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quickstep) in 2019. The 2017 Tour was the one where Sagan was booted on Stage 4, so I guess we will never know if I was right or not. But with hindsight it is safe to say such a pick was probably lunacy, and since then as a rule I have only ever glanced at stage profiles so that I never allow myself to make such wild claims. Ah! But this season, if one generously allows a few concessions, I am on a bit of a heater. I daresay I basically just went three-for-three in the Ardennes proper as you’re about to hear, and I attribute my success to throwing caution to the wind and watching for the intangibles. But let us address such hypothetical money-squandering degeneration at the end of this recap, first let us address the Monument that unfolded before our eyes today, at Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

It was a great edition of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, surely memorable and worthy of its ancient Monument status. In recent years, occasionally Liege has been a slow-burn with an anti-climatic pay off. Perhaps Liege’s back is always more unexpectedly against the wall than even the most in-tune fans realize. Think about the character of this race. It is a race for the puncheurs and proper climbers, it is up and down constantly all day, it is gruelingly long at over 250km, it is raced like a high mountain stage of the Grand Tours because the elevation gain is similar to one of those big days. But by the end of the Spring Classics we have already just been treated to intriguing show after intriguing show of tactical battles that involve explosive climbs and brutal cobble sectors for some two months, where the pace never slows besides a complete strategic sit-up when the composition of a group does not seem right. That all changes at La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. The climbs are too long and steep to simply explode over, which is understandable in the Southern Scenic High Mountain Ranges of the Grand Tours, but it is deceptive in the Belgian Ardennes off the back of the explosive Flandrien Classics. The Ardenne is beautiful too, but there is no wide-angle mountain vistas to speak of, just steep climb after steep climb through yet another quaint little Ardennes town. Of course, it is a war of attrition, but compared to the Cobbled Classics it is hard for the couch-potato viewer to conceptualize how much harder Liege is, and why the riders are not smashing it up every single climb as they did at say the Tour of Flanders? I am realizing I am forming yet another line of reasoning that the Ardennes Classics should be moved to an August post-Tour slot. In that spot we all would be more prepared to handle an intriguing slow burn having already recently seen a number of slow-burner mountain stages at the Giro and Tour. Luckily, in recent years Liege has opted once more for a relatively flat run-in to the finish which has meant the decisive moves have had to come from further out instead of the last finishing hill. And thankfully, that is exactly what happened this year.

The action began to heat up with some 60km to go. The early breakaway of bit players’ lead began to evaporate, because the peloton was finally picking up steam up and down every climb. Combined, a proper flurry of attacks transpired for the next 30km. The early breakaway of seven riders shattered part as many of the categorized climbs came in quick succession. A a three-man group of non-headliners found some separation from the peloton or were allowed some leash, and eventually they bridged up to what remained of the breakaway. With 35km remaining, four Ineos Grenadiers smashed up the Cote de La Redoute—the race’s most iconic climb—and broke away with a group of 12. But too many favorites had missed the move, and none wanted to work with four Grenadiers. This group was brought back into the fold a couple kilometers later. New fresher attacks would need to be tried, but already much damage had been done. Only 40 riders were left to contend for the win of Liege-Bastogne-Liege. On all the climbs, categorized or not, the Grenadiers fought to really denotate this race. They knew they had a plethora of good climbers, but none likely to win in a sprint with the likes of the headline favorites. Thus they pushed the pace on every rise, and strung out the peloton in one long line hoping to form a smaller group with the right cohesive motives to work together to stay away. Finally, around 23km to go, the Grenadier Tao Geoghegan Hart—reigning Giro d’Italia champion for only a month more—got the elastic of the peloton to snap once again. Grenadier teammate Adam Yates was with him, Jumbo had Jonas Vingegaard glued to these two, the Grenadiers also had Richard Carapaz (another former Giro champion), there was a Bahrain rider, a BikeExchange rider, a tall Israel Start-Up Nation rider, a lesser Quickstep rider, EF’s Sergio Higuita was there in his Colombian champion’s jersey, and the favorite who had been following every move all day Tadej Pogacar (UAE) the defending Tour de France champion was there as well.

O! Surely, surely, Pogacar came into this Monument fiercely eager and itching to race. For on Wednesday at La Fleche, UAE was denied participation when a likely false-positive COVID test was turned up by the team. It seems Pogacar refused to believe it: the team had been vaccinated over the winter, all had turned up two negative tests each before arriving in Belgium, and all turned up negative tests after. Yes, yes, Pogacar recently said there is more to cycling than just the Tour…as in Tadej Pogacar was geed up to race the Mur de Huy at La Fleche Wallonne. With that denied participation, he had a strong desire to unleash everything in this Liege. In all the moves the Grenadiers launched, Pogacar teed himself up to make every split for he wanted to race hard this day. Now he had an opportunity with this group, none of the other top favorites had made it: Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer and Champion of the World was not here, nor Movistar’s 41-year-old birthday boy Alejandro Valverde looking for a swansong Liege victory to cap his career, nor was his Slovenian big brother and make-shift mentor Primoz Roglic the Relentless (Jumbo-Visma) in this move either. Yes, surely Pogacar should have worked with this group so that it would stay away…but this is not what happened. Ineos, with its strength in numbers, sent Richard Carapaz on the attack, because other than Pogacar none in the group were willing to work with them. Thus all, including Pogacar, sat up and let Carapaz go on the attack solo while they were all absorbed back into what remained of the peloton containing the other top headline favorites.

So it was Richard Carapaz the Grenadier was flying solo once more on the attack just as he did to unexpectedly take the lead of the 2019 Giro d’Italia. Yes, at the Giro he built up his lead all in one day as the other favorites just stared each other down and did not chase until it was far too late. And think of last year’s Tour in the last week after his team leader’s hopes of winning were dashed: how Carapaz jumped in the high mountain breakaways three days in a row to put himself in contention for the Polka-Dot Jersey. O! How beautiful it is to see him grab the race by the scruff of the neck when he attacks. It is these ferocious attacks that have garnered this Ecuadorian the nickname “El Jaguar de Tulcan,” (Author’s Note: Tulcan is his native region in Ecuador). This Liege attack today looked great, and surely belonged in that ferocious Jaguar category. But alas! Carapaz’s day was marred. All held their breath when they saw him do it; many thought it was much too bold, and he was looking for trouble. On one of the many quick, steep descents: Richard Carapaz debatably performed the now outlawed Aero Supertuck. Alas! Alas! Did he not listen to my Eulogy one month ago? But of course this is cycling, and never does an event like this pass without some controversy. It was difficult to tell, but it did not seem Carapaz was actually sitting on his top tube in the classic Supertuck position; in fact, it appeared his behind was still perhaps even touching the rivet—the very front—of his saddle. Perhaps he just looked so aero we all just imagined he was in the Supertuck even though he was still touching the saddle. And yet, there was also no way around it, at least 95% of his saddle was bare for the wind to sweep over. Richard Carapaz would later be disqualified for this position. In this case, I do lean towards and understand the decision to disqualify; and though Carapaz’s attack surely influenced the race, luckily he was not much of a factor in the finale. Carapaz’s advantage was at one point 25 seconds over what remained of the peloton, but with 14km to go on the last mighty climb of the day the Cote de Roche-aux-Faucons he was gobbled up by the chasing and now attacking favorites, and spit out the back.

With only 13km still to race, on the Roche-aux-Faucons, Pogacar’s trusty UAE teammate Davide Formolo was the one to finally reel in Carapaz and string out the rest behind. On Formolo’s wheel sat Michael Woods (Israel Start-Up Nation), then came David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Pogacar himself, Alaphilippe in his Rainbow Jersey, famed UAE off-season transfer Marc Hirschi next, veteran Valverde, Jakob Fuglsang (Astana-Premier Tech), Primoz Roglic in his Slovenian National Champion’s Jersey, and Teisj Benoot (Team DSM). These were those strung out at the head of affairs. Ah! But where were the Grenadiers who had done so much denotation work already? Who felt the best of those that remained? Surely, the ones named at the front; but who would launch the next selective attack? I tell you, it was the audacious Canadian who loves the steep gradients: Michael “Rusty” Woods attacked over the top of the climb and the false-flat that followed. Instantly on and glued to his wheel were David Gaudu—surely he was on a great day—and Tadej Pogacar—did I not tell you he was covering every single move? Alaphilippe and Valverde, the kings of the Mur de Huy, scrambled to latch onto this race-winning move for this Monument of the Ardennes. Because behind them, there was a gap! Yes, yes, the defending race champion, the mighty Primoz Roglic the Relentless had not the strength this day to go with such a move. At first glance, especially looking at the quality of the five out front, all thought that should be it, and the final selection made. But Primoz Roglic is the Relentless for a reason. Despite two UAE rider-anchors on his wheel, and even a regrouping of a few other riders including Michal Kwaitkowski (Ineos Grenadiers) and Estaban Chaves (Team BikeExchange), Roglic chased the five leaders back to within a 10-second gap on what remained of that rising false-flat. It took another attack from Rusty Woods for the leading five to find enough real impetus to really assure they would stay away. To Woods’ attack Alaphilippe in his Rainbow Jersey bridged, Gaudu scraped his way back as well with Pogacar and Valverde following in his wheel. Then once more they had a 23 second gap, and Roglic and the rest of his group’s chances of winning this year’s Liege were laid to rest.

And then we came to the endgame: five men left in contention for the win. As I said at the beginning, I had already made my official picks for all to hear, but always the complexion of races such as these is changing. In this scenario, who did I want to win most? What would be the best story or headline? And most importantly, what intangibles were at play right now? Some of these questions I was consciously thinking, but most only subconsciously below the surface. All watching were also subconsciously asking these same questions, running through the intangibles in their heads as well. This provides more hype and excitement to the finale of any race, good commentators will draw this out as well. So how did this group stack up on paper? How have they looked all race and the weeks leading up to this point? And what is most factoring into their psyche and motivations? Let us review the factors that were weighing in our minds at the time.

Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer has been racing from Opening Weekend to today. He has seemed to be firing on all cylinders since then, but since the Tour of Flanders his form has seemed to be dipping until he pulled off the clutch win on the Mur de Huy at Fleche just a few days ago. He comes into this Liege looking for redemption. Surely his relegation last year in the Autumn edition of Liege while wearing the Rainbow Jersey is something he wishes to erase from his mind. And yet here today, he has the extremely rare and golden chance to redeem himself while still wearing the Rainbows. Additionally, the Ardennes is where Alaphilippe really began to make a name for himself, and yet still he has not managed to win this Monument Liege. Surely, he must not squander another chance! For surely amongst this group he should have the top sprint…O! But how much energy has been sapped from the legs?

As has been stated veteran Alejandro Valverde the Green Bullet celebrates his forty-first birthday on this very day. The Ardennes have been O! so special to his heart for time uncounted, and it has long been announced this would be his last season. He holds the record for wins at La Fleche with five, but he has already won Liege four times as well. Were he to win Liege this day he would end his career tied for the Liege victories record in good company: only Eddy Merckx has won it five times. Surely, this would be the definition of great swansong victories. But last year Valverde showed his age by his absence during the shortened lockdown season—no results of any significance. Always a man who has thrived off racing, even been known to race into shape, surely the solitary lockdowns were to his liking least of all the peloton (save maybe the mighty Rockstar Peter Sagan). And yet, here he was in the finale of Liege, already having won the GP Miguel Indurain in the Basque Country, and fresh off a podium at La Fleche; perhaps the stars really were aligning for this swansong of swansong victories. And yet, already three years ago he handed the Mur de Huy mantle to Alaphilippe, and whether up the Mur or on the flat surely nowadays it would be a tall order to beat Alaphilippe in a sprint.

Tadej Pogacar’s intangibles have already been stated, and his plain paper statistics are well known by many now. He is the reigning Tour de France champion, the Tour and Liege have not both been won by a rider in their career for well over a cycling-generation. But to restate the already paraphrased quote, because it is so refreshing and pleasing to the ears to hear: Tadej Pogacar knows there is more to cycling than just the Tour de France. He was there last year in the sprint at the end for Liege, he has won flat sprints after a hard mountain stage in the Grand Tours as well. And yet, though he has taken many stages, he has never won a professional one-day road race in his career. But the biggest of intangible factors stoking the fires in his heart this day was the missed opportunity to race on Wednesday at La Fleche. Already it has been stated how he covered every move. Surely, surely, he would rain hellfire down in this final sprint unless he where to breakaway before.

All know of Michael Woods’ former running background, by the age of 18 he had broken Four Minutes in the Mile: one of the greatest thresholds to cross in all of sports. Many conjecture it is this running background that really helps him excel on the steepest of gradients: should the road pitch over 20%, Woods is always among the best. Perhaps it is folly to think the running mechanics translates to the extremity of getting out of the saddle to lay down as much power as possible up the steep slopes; but surely the intensity of the steepest pitches is akin to the intensity in the final minutes of a middle-distance athletics track race. His record at Liege has been impeccable: four top tens in five starts, including one second place among the bunch. Surely, he has tasted second and shall not be satisfied with anything else than first. And yet, but this point in the race, the significant climbing was finished and on paper he would surely not win this sprint. Surely, he would have to try something before the final straight away.

And fifth of the bunch, with the least likely chance to win on paper was young David Gaudu. Last year he took two stages of the Vuelta, already this year he has been riding well especially when he was the only one to keep pace and ride with Roglic the Relentless to win the last stage of the Tour of the Basque Country: the stage race that most resembles and prepares for this grueling long Liege Monument. But with the same case as Woods, how would he be able to beat the others in a sprint? Surely, he would have just sit on and work less: try for one big attack or the sprint of his life. With Groupama-FDJ talismans and team leaders Thibaut Pinot and Arnaud Demare both struggling for form, his team would really be looking for at least a podium place showing out of him. O! How would he fair on this biggest of stages he has yet to be spotlighted on?

Thus may more depth and story and intrigue have been added to the finale, always these factors should be explicitly or implicitly present in the viewer’s mind so that they may experience the fullest of dramas possible. In the final kilometers they entered urban Liege, but passed into what seemed a slightly more secluded and wooded neighborhood with a few little rises and twists. None found any separation, for all worked fairly well and evenly together. In the final couple kilometers, they descended a main boulevard back into urban Liege proper, and with 2km to go Woods stopped rotating through to the front. A few hundred meters later, with 1.4km remaining, Woods threw the dice and launched his attack. But to no avail; Alaphilippe and the others all covered. How much had Woods just deadened is legs for what would now be the inevitable 5-up sprint at the line? Under the Red Kite signifying 1km remaining, Julian Alaphlippe the Musketeer was stuck on the front. But then the cat-and-mousing began, the pace slowed extremely: all weaved and bobbed around the road working to not be on the front to lead out the sprint, none even seemed to worry another would launch from well far out. Alas! Despite his wise old age, it was Alejandro Valverde that was ultimately stuck on the front; the loser of the metaphorically game of hot-potato. Valverde slowed the pace down to a crawl and worried not at all about how much of the gap a second chasing group was closing down. But with 300m to go, he knew there was nothing for it no matter how much his back was against the wall. Valverde began to wind it up, and then burst into a long full gas sprint from well over the standard 200m out. Ah! But I am sure you can tell, it would not be a swansong victory for the man, but surely he should hold his head high with such a swansong Ardennes performance. And the sprinters he lost to: why it looked poetry on wheels. Woods was second wheel behind Valverde, and he came around on Valverde’s right. But as Woods came around, Alaphilippe further to the right in the Rainbow Jersey came around him. But as Alaphilippe came around, even further to the right came Tadej Pogacar who had started the sprint from the last wheel. Factor in the on-paper statistics, the gaged current form, the tells of their energy reserves, the track sprint tactics—in that instant it looked to me all where collectively evenly matched: all that mattered were the intangibles. Which would win out, redemption or rage? O! It was another photo.

But the photo was not as close as last week’s Amstel, from the overhead helicopter shot it was clear Pogacar’s rage won out against Alaphilippe’s redemption desires. Alaphilippe would take his second place at Liege in a row, the third of his career—close but no cigar once more in the race he most must win in his career. But there was Tadej Pogacar elated in victory, and I must say so was I: for he was my official pick for today. Yes, yes, the most recent book I just finished was Matthew McConaughey’s Greenlights. Perhaps his sports betting section stuck with me, and influenced my decision making when all other factors seemed equal. To quote the man:

“When betting, I specifically enjoy considering the intangibles…The take Brett Favre and the Packers on Monday night because his dad passed away last Tuesday or bet on any team who has a star player who just had his first newborn child because they’re now playing for more than themselves bet…When I win these bets based on these psychological hunches and tells that are neither scientific nor measured by the Vegas line makers, I believe I have an inside track, betting 5.0, Machiavellian craft, all because I kn-ewww it.”

Yes, yes, I think this was applicable to me today. I picked up on the Twitter news about Pogacar’s rage, and when all other factors seemed even to me heading into the race I let that be the deciding one for my official pick. Of course, as Matthew says: there was nothing scientific in it, in fact it is probably harmful to let bets like this go to my head. For in bets like these, all only remember the one they pull off, and not the other ten they have already blown. But with that said, still I head into the Giro d’Italia with hubristic confidence that I shall pick 15 of the stage winners correctly. I am sure I will be humbled in a few weeks’ time, but it is fun to sit on a high horse every once in a while. Today Liege has made me and all faces smile for this Monument, La Doyenne, has lived up to the hype once more and produced a thrilling race to end the Spring Classics on a high note.

2021 Fleche: The Strongest Puncheur vs the Man Who Knows the “Trick” (Written)

The some-190km before it mattered not, as is always the case with La Fleche Wallonne, the Walloon Arrow. As all knew it would be, the race was decided on the mighty Mur de Huy climb. Only 1.3km in length, but O! how steeper and steeper it gets to the very top. An average gradient of 11%, a maximum gradient somewhere above 20%. Some say it is of some intrigue to have such a race end with such a pure test of strength and power. To this I say: for a Wednesday Classic, perhaps this is reasonable. Should one work all day and not have time to watch at leisure for an hour or two, surely all can find 3 minutes in their day to squeeze in watching the Final Kilometer of this La Fleche Wallonne. But is this climb a pure test of who is the best puncheur in the world? This shall be the subject at the end of this recap. Additionally, given this race’s prestige I do not think the race coming down to just one final climb is appropriate. O! I tell you once upon a time La Fleche was more hallowed than the Monument Liege-Bastgone-Liege. O! Surely, such a race needs more meaningful racing before the last kilometer of its length. But such is this era, La Fleche Wallonne all comes down to the final time up the Mur de Huy. So let us begin there. Who was the strongest up this mighty Mur? Who rode it to perfection? And who won this famous Ardennes Classic?

Intermarche’s Maurits Lammertink was the last breakaway rider to be caught with 1.5km to go in the middle of the village of Huy itself at the base of the mighty Mur. A Quickstep and a Bahrain rider tried to find leading separation under the Flamme Rouge, the Red Kite, signifying 1 Kilometer remaining. Behind at the front of the peloton an Ineos Grenadier, an Israel Start-Up Nation rider, and an AG2R rider were all leading the chase of these sudden two escapees. By 800m to go, the Quickstep and Bahrain riders were back in the fold. Here the road really began to rise. With 700m to go, the periodic white paint on the road of “Huy” started appearing every few meters—as if the riders and all viewers were going to forget where exactly this famous Mur is located. The Grenadier Michal Kwaitkowski was at the pointy end of this Fleche Wallonne—ah! is that how this race derives its “archer-ial” name? A few spots behind in great position sat Quickstep’s man of the day Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer wearing his World Champion’s Jersey twice winner of this race already. On his shoulder in his Slovenian Champion’s Jersey that still showed off the Wasp Yellow of his Jumbo-Visma team was Primoz Roglic the tank of tanks attending La Fleche for his first time. On his shoulder was Canadian Michael Woods (Isreal Start-Up Nation), with his famous former running past perhaps that is where he derives his ability to be among the best when all get out of the saddle for the gradients above 20%. As they approached 500m to go, Benoit Cosnefroy (A2GR) was pacing on the front. Meanwhile five-time former champion of La Fleche wily old Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) jumped onto the sidewalk to move up in position. With the climb already half over, here was the time and point when the race would be decided. By no means were these halves of this climb equal. Like the rest of the race, the first part of the climb is only a leg-softener for the final few hundreds of meters where a winning move is launched.

Up came Primoz Roglic on the riders’ far-right side, muscling his way up like the efficient power-packed unit he has time and again proven to be. With his powerful piston-legs, his calm demeanor, his metronomic pace, no rider in the peloton more resembles a powerful steam engine chugging its way up a steep grade despite a mile of freight weighing it down behind. The road turned left and climbed ever so steeper, and just like that only 450m were still left of this race. Roglic rode the righthand barrier separating the road from a hedge of green foliage. But as the next right-hand bend in the road approached in the next 50m, Kwaitkowski and Cosnefroy on the front still cut across the road seeking the most direct line up this horrendously steep road—the quicker to bring an end to the pain! Around the right turn, Kwaitkowski rounded it at its perfect apex, Roglic muscled his way ahead of Cosnefroy to be second wheel around, and Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer in the Rainbow Jersey as Champion of the World sat on muscular Roglic’s wheel. Some riders took the least efficient left-hand outside line around this right-hand turn for now it was their only hope of glory. The best looked Mauri Vansevenant (Deceuninck-Quickstep) surely an Ardennes star of the future. But today Vansevenant and the others coming from the left were but pretenders. Their outside accelerations would not match the favorites on the inside-line to the right. Michal Kwaitkowski slowly climbed up the road firmly drifting to his left for at 300m to go the road slowly turned left again as it still remained relentlessly steep.

Yes, of course, I uttered the word “Relentless.” Before the road even began to curve, well before the 300m to go sign was reached, because Kwaitkowski had drifted left and allowed him daylight and open room on the front once more: Roglic the Relentless went on the attack, and launched his bid for glory! Within 3 seconds he had a 10m gap. O! Please think not of the Little Engine That Could when I compared Roglic to a chugging choo-choo train a paragraph ago. Surely, I meant he chugged like a powerful locomotive with the hottest of fires in his belly, and with the so much force even Newton and his Laws of Motion would be impressed. Yes, yes, at the 2020 Vuelta a Espana I dubbed him Roglic the Relentless: O! surely he lived up to such a nickname today on this grueling Mur de Huy climb! Roglic the Relentless! Roglic the Evergreen, always in top shape, always prepared fight for victory at every race for his Jumbo-Visma team. Out of the saddle, he danced on the pedals with the ferocity of a heavyweight boxer. Every pedal stroke was another above the belt jab or hook to his opponents behind.

Ah! But the opponents responded in good time. Not Kwaitkowski who had been pacing up the entire climb, but from his right up came Alaphilippe the World Champion dancing on the pedals as well. And from his right came veteran Valverde in his last season—surely this is his last dance up the Mur de Huy as well. Yes, yes, with Roglic like a target out in front, as Alaphilippe launched his bridging attack, so like an arrowhead did what remained of the peloton look; surely this race, this Fleche Wallonne, this Walloon Arrow is O! so aptly named. But with that timely Alaphilippe attack, the Arrow was “shot” and all zipped into one long line, and within an instant it was only wily old Valverde that could stay within a length of Alaphilippe who was now hawking down Primoz Roglic the Relentless. Valverde and Alaphilippe, seven wins of this race between them, surely should any have masterclass expertise on this climb it was these Fleche former-champions. With only 200m left would their mastery of this climb help them catch Roglic at the very end with perfect timing, or would they come up just short? Valverde, the wizened old veteran, still had all of his superior race-craft…but alas! he had already passed the Mur de Huy Mantle to Alaphilippe long ago. It was Alaphilippe the Musketeer who was rapidly reeling Roglic in now! O! O! Though perhaps the maximum gradient had been passed and the road became ever more slightly shallow, still it rose like a wall, and still the finish seemed an eternity away from the locomotive Roglic the Restless! With less than 100m to the line, Alaphilippe had eviscerated Roglic’s gap, he latched onto his wheel. The road still climbed, and perhaps Roglic would be able to not allow Alaphilippe the Musketeer to come around. But with 60m to go, finally finally the road just about leveled to a false flat. And Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer wearing the Rainbow Jersey as Champion of the World continued launching. Already for 100m his foot had been all the way down on the gas pedal, now that the steep gradient resistance to him had subsided, still he had the power and acceleration to bring himself all the way to the line. Primoz Roglic the Relentless proved his title, at no point until the end did he bow his head knowing his defeat. He had measured his effort enough to take himself to the line as well at a steady and forceful pace, but he had not the acceleration of the World Champion Alaphilippe. In the last 10m the result was clear, Alaphilippe was able to post up for victory showing off his Deceuninck-Quickstep sponsor and the World Champion Bands. He was waving his hands in the air, soaking in his third victory at La Fleche Wallonne.

And so, thus it was another compelling drama up the Mur de Huy to end La Fleche Wallonne. Julian Alaphilippe took victory wearing the Rainbow Jersey of World Champion. Primoz Roglic took another second-place finish—for anyone else that would be a heartbreaking second place, but this is Roglic the Relentless. The Roglic whose assured Tour victory slipped through his fingers last September, whose Paris-Nice dominance was foiled by a pair of crashes on the last day this past March. And yet he re-enters every race unphased by any recent defeats, and he Relentlessly gives his best effort time and time again. Today, Roglic the Relentless pushed Alaphilippe the Musketeer so hard that Alaphilippe took the Mur de Huy climbing record by 6 seconds. Behind, veteran Valverde, former five-time winner of this race, rounded out the podium just ahead of Michael Woods who goes O! so well on the steep gradients; and fifth place was nowhere to be seen. Ah! To see Alaphilippe and Valverde do so well—now eight wins between the pair of them—it makes me think what I have thought before. There must be some textbook “trick” to winning on the Mur de Huy. Surely, it must be a prerequisite that you are one of the finest puncheurs in the world, but Roglic proved amongst or even at the top of that category today and still lost. But this was Roglic’s first Fleche, thus it appears he attacked too early, he knows not yet the “trick.” From 2014 through 2017 Valverde won on the Mur de Huy, and often it was Alaphilippe who was second to him. Finally in 2018, the order was reversed, and it was Alaphilippe that was finally victorious. Alaphilippe won once more in 2019, and only won not in 2020 for he did not participate. But to bring us back up to contemporary times, for the past month Alaphilippe has looked off his best, while Roglic and other puncheurs have seemed on finer form. Surely, surely, there must simply just be a formula to winning on the Mur de Huy: “Get into position here, use X-percentage of energy here, wait, wait until here, then once you get to X-spot: Full Gas! Launch!” Valverde and Alaphilippe, and even Anna Van Der Breggen (SD Worx) on the women’s side, know this formula. Roglic the Relentless in his first participation did not, surely with hindsight we see he went full gas just a bit too soon.

Thus, alas! I question La Fleche Wallonne’s Mur de Huy finish even more: is this finishing climb really even a pure elemental test of who is the best puncheur in the world? Or is it simply a test of which Top Five puncheur in the world knows the winning formula and has the legs on this day? Some critics of my observation will say that Julian Alaphillipe was the strongest on the day. I disagree, I believe he was at best equal to Roglic this day, or even below him in form. There were years too where Valverde won when he still seemed not on top form and subpar to other contenders, and even today look at how in his old age he still knew how to pull out a podium finish ahead of all these young stronger and more spritely bucks. Some critics of my observation will say I am now contradicting myself, because if there is some “trick” to the Mur de Huy then tactics do come into play on this climb. I disagree, understanding a basically sure-fire formula that only a few ever discover and have the ability to execute is such a lame display of tactics and strategy to me that it is ultimately and completely negligible. We all know Valverde and Alaphilippe know the secret “trick” to riding up the Mur de Huy. Were they to come clean with instructions and annotated diagrams of such a secret for all to know, I could then potentially buy in and praise this ultimate pure puncheur test. But here we are again. Once more, despite I dare say not seeming on top form coming into this race, Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer can add another Fleche Wallonne to his victory quiver as Valverde often did of old. Meanwhile, I expect Roglic the Relentless to be happy that he produced an incredibly strong performance. And I hope, when Roglic dissects and analyzes his performance and the tape: he too figures out the secret trick to the Mur de Huy. May he come back next year with the secret knowledge and the same supreme piston legs better ready to launch a perfectly timed attack to victory against the incumbent Mur de Huy Mantle holder, Julian Alaphilippe the Musketeer.