Team Preview 2021: Trek-Segafredo

And now, with my fourth team preview, I arrive at the first big head scratcher of a team. Since Fabian Cancellara’s retirement in 2016, the Trek team has been a rollercoaster of ups and downs, with the bottom troughs much deeper and wider than their occasional narrow high peaks. Their greatest accomplishment by far in 2020 was Richie Porte’s Tour podium, but alas! he has rejoined his old powerhouse Ineos Grenadiers team to be a faithful domestique once again. But perhaps they are in good position, and they have an admirable track-record in developing talent. So let us run through the roster and see what we can see.

It would be insulting and unjust to start anywhere else than besides Vincenzo Nibali. Winner of all three Grand Tours, his home-roads Giro twice, winner of both Italian Monuments, Milan-Sanremo and il Lombardia; he is one of the most decorated riders in the peloton. He is known as the Shark of Messina. Yes, Messina of which the Strait between Italy and Sicily gets its name. Surely a trade hub since ancient days of old, if the sailors could avoid Scylla and Charbydis that surely lurked nearby. But enough about Sicilian towns, let us focus on the beast he invokes. He is called the Shark for he when he races, he can smell blood in the water. When he rivals are on the ropes or in trouble, that is when Nibali is at his best. That is when he grabs the race by the scruff of the neck. That is when Nibali attacks and rides away to victory. So accomplished is he at this business he has earned a place in the top pantheon of Italian cycling—a nation which has such an illustrious history, it is astounding company to be numbered among: Coppi, Bartali, Binda, Girardengo, Gimondi, Moser, Saronni, Cipo, and Nibali’s own childhood hero Pantani. But alas! in my estimation for two years now, Nibali has been too old to live up to his aqua-predator name. It was on the last mountain stage of the 2019 Giro that I declared this, and it has proved true ever since. In that Giro, Nibali’s chief competition was Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Vimsa), but in the third week Roglic was fading fast and Richard Carapaz (then of Movistar, now of Ineos Grenadiers) took a surprising lead. On that last mountain stage, it was set up for a perfect ambush on Carapaz, but neither Nibali or Roglic had the legs to even attempt to attack Carapaz. Thus in that moment did it fully hit me, Vincenzo you are too old to win another Grand Tour. That proved true this year as well at the Giro where he simply had no answer to all the young bucks taking their shot at glory. O! Vincenzo, at 36 years old, surely you know this is a young man’s game now, and even Sharks must grow old. I hold out hope you can take a swansong victory, perhaps another il Lombardia or even in the wildest of dreams in Tokyo. After the 2016 Olympic Road Race disaster where you crashed out when in winning position, clearly you have unfinished business, but alas! even there I shall not hold my breath waiting for your victory celebrations. Yes, Vincenzo, after so long it is quite close to the Shark’s final bedtime.

Behind their living legend who shall Trek put forth to gather them results? Perhaps their Classics squad come do some damage: Jasper Stuyven, Mads Pedersen, and Edward Theuns. Last year Stuyven was flying high before lockdown, winning Omloop Het Nieuwsbald and finishing fifth the next day at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, but after lockdown his results were sparse though perhaps he did put in good work for his teammate would did so much work for him in his Omloop victory. Mads Pedersen, robbed of a full season in the Rainbows because of plague, finished off the season well in his regular Trek-Segafredo kit. He took the big Classics win he was pressured to take as soon as all saw the Rainbows on his back. He won Gent-Wevelgem, just one tear below the Monuments in prestige. It was after the hard day, the one where Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Mathieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix) were smashing the field to bits, only to stare each other down and let everyone ride away in last 3 kilometers to sprint for victory. It was this Mads Pedersen that won that sprint, and surely such a result provided another great finish to the end of his season as Yorkshire Worlds did the year before. Add in Edward Theuns and this is a good Classics triangle of leaders. They are not the all powerful Queens of Quickstep or even AG2R, but they are viable options and proven winners, surely they shall be in the hunt and working together for Classics wins.

Beyond Nibali and this Classics trio, Bauke Mollema returns for another season. He has won il Lombardia and San Sebastian, he has consistently finished in the top ten at all the Grand Tours. But like Nibali, is a creeping stranger in the night, Old Age, stalking him? What about Giulio Ciccone in the prime of life? In 2019 he won the mountains jersey at the Giro and wore the Yellow Jersey at the Tour for a couple days as race leader, but his 2020 was poor. He was anonymous, his results were sparse. But perhaps a poor season in 2020 can be excused, especially if it is made up for in 2021. What shall his objectives be? Beyond him, even younger, younger than even Remco Evenepoel (Deceuninck-Quickstep) is the American Quinn Simmons. Hype was high for him when he won Junior Worlds in Yorkshire in 2019. Now he has had a season of experience at the highest level. This year shall prove crucial to his development if he is really to be one of cycling’s stars in the future. Beyond these names, I see some good domestiques and rumors of good prospects. But which ones shall pay off? It is beyond my talents to have any sort of good guess, but I do believe Trek will get some results this year, and one or two of these youngsters shall pay off handsomely. I have always liked the Trek team, the Segafredo coffee sponsor, and they always have a fine kit. Once more this year, they have my interest and my hope for success. May good fortune be with them.

Team Preview 2021: AG2R La Citroen Mondiale

Now, now the team previews start to get interesting. I am not sure there is a team that has done more significant overhaul this offseason to their roster than this AG2R team, and this change is fully symbolized with their big splash of most daring new kit of the season thus far. So let us playfully begin with the kit, for it is supposed to strum up some conversation. I am a big fan. This Citroen automobile sponsor is new, thus I like that the kit is significantly different this year—just like their roster. The kit still undeniably has the A2GR lineage with the dung-brown shorts that have somehow been allowed to endure for as long as I can remember, but the plain white top with only a hint of the light blue and brown diamond-argyle is perfectly accented, and the red Citroen is a welcome addition in my opinion. Then the diagonal-sashed lettering looks so different, flashy, and even cool in my opinion. I am excited to see this new-look team in action in a fitting new-look jersey.

When rumors began flying about the departure of Romain Bardet to Team DSM, many saw it as quite the head scratcher. For Frenchman Bardet had been the heart and soul of the French AG2R team for some six or seven years, one of the best chances the whole French nation had of winning the Tour in this century. To hear that Pierre Latour—who many figured AG2R was grooming to be Bardet’s successor—was leaving the team as well was also a head scratcher for many. For many, but not for all; not for me, because quite frankly I have never paid much attention to AG2R. For me they have always been one of those old guard French teams with a below average budget and below average results. Always grooming and massaging the next big French hope and to their credit they did put Bardet on the Tour podium in Paris twice. But I have never seen any successful follow through at all to crack into or topple the dominance of many top teams. The closest they came was with Bardet and I think those Tour podiums are the best GC results he’ll ever get. Meanwhile on the Classics front they went all-in when they signed Oliver Naesan a couple years ago to give him leadership in the Spring one-day classics and then bodyguard Bardet at the Tour. I found this to be a good idea, because Naesan has been the talented Belgian knocking on the door of a big Classics win for a couple years now….but then a couple years stretched into too many years. Which brings us to this 2021 season where for the first time ever, I am excited and interested in the AG2R lineup; dare I say it: this squad has such a good-looking roster I now actually put expectations on them!

Whether it was Bardet’s and Latour’s idea to leave or whether it was the AG2R’s decision to go in a new direction is unclear, but the results are the same: AG2R is clearly denotating any serious GC ambitions and I love it. Seemingly overnight they have retooled to become on paper a top Classics team. No longer will all the pressure be on Oliver Naesan to deliver a big result, AG2R made the big splash of signing over Greg Van Avermaet from the now defunct CCC Team and Bob Jungels from powerhouse Deceuninck-Quickstep. For three or four years now, Naesan has had the weight of the AG2R team on his back for every single race that takes place in Belgium. This was problematic, not because Naesan is bad at handling pressure, it was simply a bad strategy for the one-day Classics. The Cobbled Classics are the most chaotic races in an extremely chaotic sport. To say the Cobbled Classics are chess on wheels is an understatement, it chess on wheels where the board is constantly shaking and some of the pieces randomly fall of the board and cannot be used. Why has Decuninck-Quickstep been the most dominant Classics team? Because they have the most options, for every classic they bring three or four powerful “Queens” to continue the chess analogy. If they lose one of their Queens to a crash or mechanical or bad day, they can take the hit—in fact sometimes two or even three of their Queens work together in deadly coordination to get one of their riders up the road to take victory solo all alone. Meanwhile AG2R for the past couple years has had only one Queen in Naesan. In the races where he did not crash out or have an untimely mechanical that cost him his race, Naesan’s simply been marked by teams with multiple Queens or multiple cards to play and then missed the winning move or lost the sprint to a stronger rider. All of that is now changed.

I think the signing of Greg Avermaet shall prove to be a masterstroke for AG2R. The 2016 Rio Olympic champion, the man who has won all the Cobbled Classics except the one he wants most, could prove invaluable this season even if he continues to not achieve any major results. In the Spring of 2017, Van Ave was clearly team BMC’s only Queen but he still managed to win Omloop Het Nieuwsbald, E3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem, and Paris-Roubaix. These are all the biggest Cobbled Classics, besides Tour of Flanders which he took 2nd in that year; and there was a high probability he would have won that one too if he wasn’t involved in that Sagan crash where the fan’s coat snagged around his handlebars. To look back, that season sounds unreal, especially since then: he has looked good, looked strong, but his results have been undeniably meager. At BMC he had a decently strong support team, even though he was the undisputed leader. At CCC Team he had no support and he was a couple of years older and could never reconjure that 2017 form. With CCC’s folding, besides going to Quickstep, this is really the best opportunity I see for Van Avermaet—especially to achieve results all year long. Now he gets to team up with one of his training partners and friends in Oliver Naesan, and here is the other advantage to having multiple Queens: the Queens strengthen each other. So though Van Ave is now 35, this could prove a rejuvenating move for both him and Naesan. Neither is any longer the only leader of their team that the other favorites must always relatively easily mark. When teams chase down an attacking Naesan, after they spend their energy catching him, Van Ave can launch an attack himself. Once he is brought back Naesan can try again….or perhaps one of AG2R’s other new signings.

I was surprised to see Bob Jungels leave the successful Deceuninck-Quickstep team for AG2R, but when the Van Avermaet transfer news came out too it all made sense and greatly excited me. The Luxembourger has proven to be a great talent: winning uncountable national titles on the Road and in the Time Trial, placing Top Ten on Grand Tour General Classifications, winning Monuments and Classics like Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne; he is a complete package. His biggest problem honestly is to become a jack of all traders and master of none. Thus I was happy to see him seem to drop Grand Tour GC ambitions. Talented he, O, so is, but will he ever win one of the Grand Tours? Or place on their final podium? I think not, at best I could see him placing Top Five, but at that point surely it is more exciting and fun to throw all your energy behind winning instead of only placing well. This is cycling, not Track & Field, second place in a photo finish is still lightyears behind throwing up your arms in victory. Jungels is also not a young wolf anymore. At 28 he is in the prime of life, and coming from Quickstep perhaps he will help facilitate a team culture of three Queens always ready to share and coordinate their shots at victory.

I like the look of the rest of the team as well, even if I not familiar with half the faces to be brutally honest. Bringing in Lilian Calmejane from Total Direct Energie is a good addition in my eyes: from memory the year he took his Tour stage win he was electric in the lead up and that was the crown jewel of the season, but he has been underwhelming ever since. Just like Van Avermaet, I think this move for Calmejane could prove extremely rejuvenating. Surely at this point we must consider Tony Gallopin and Mathias Frank the team veterans. I fondly remember Gallopin’s 2014 Tour stage win and Frank’s 2016 Vuelta breakaway heroics but those events seem so long ago, truly they are past their primes and we cannot expect much more from them. But I see the team has signed over the young Australian Ben O’Connor, he’s a talent for the Grand Tours—stage and GC wise. Nans Peters’ Giro and Tour stage wins were both impressive and he is only now coming into what should be his peak years. I have always had a soft spot for American Larry Warbasse though he does not have many results to his name and usually proves a better helper than winner. And then this year I remember watching Benoit Cosnefroy be the place holder of the Polka-Dot Jersey at the Tour for two weeks and quite frankly I was unimpressed; but at the end of the season, he grew on me: 2nd at Fleche Wallone and 3rd at Brabantse Pijl were undeniably impressive especially when you notice the company that he finished with: Marc Hirschi (Team DSM), Mathieu Van der Poel (Aplecin-Fenix), and Julian Alpahillipe (Deceuninck-Quickstep). Then AG2R fills out the rest of their team with mostly young French talent. I daresay they have potentially found the prefect and Right balance of star-firepower and regional identity.

Yes, I think AG2R has made some interesting moves that I shall be shocked if they do not prove to be successful. As I said, I like the cut of this team’s gib so much, I would say there should be pressure and expectation on them. Unless Matheiu Van der Poel and Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) are riding in an altogether higher stratosphere and just go on to dominate all the Spring Classics from Omloop to Liege, I would expect this team to win a Monument or at least two major Classics—as in they should cast down their heads in disappointment if they don’t achieve that goal. Additionally, I expect this team to be more than just cannon fodder in the Grand Tours or working for a Dark Horse leader who needs everything to go off perfectly to maybe finish on the podium. This team should go to the Tour de France with an All-Star team of Stage Hunters: bring your top Classics Queens or Aces in addition to climbing talents like Cosnefroy and Peters. They should be taking their shots everyday in high mountains breakaways and in late-escapes on every transition day that has any sort of lump in the profile within the last 30 kilometers. In addition to that, allow O’Connor and even occasionally Jungels, if he wants, to ride GC with no pressure in all the big weeklong stage races and even the Grand Tours. As I said, this is truly the first time I am excited for AG2R and it is because they finally have options—options they should be firing off like a shotgun. I expect them to land a fair number of their shots and I dare dream it should prove greatly entertaining in the process.

2021 Preview: Deceuninck-Quickstep

Thus we come to the most winning team in the World Tour. And thus we begin the arduous task of keeping this preview short. An arduous task indeed, for this is the team that contains Julian Alaphilippe the current World Champion, Zdenek Stybar the former cyclocross champion, Sam Bennett the Irish sprinter won the Green Points Jersey at the 2020 Tour, Remco Evenepoel the young phenom, Joao Almeida the Portguese upstart in the 2020 Giro, Yves Lampaert, Dries Devenyns, Michael Morkov, Remi Cavagna, Kasper Asgreen, Fabio Jakobsen, Iljo Keisse, Alvaro Hodeg, Tim Declercq, and James Knox….and that is before we factor in the new transfers. Of course this is the Belgian team under the leadership and management of the mighty deep-bass-ed Patrick Lefevere. How renowned he is at assembling such winning teams on such a tight budget. Quickstep, the ever-loyal Belgian flooring company, and Deceuninck, a windows company, continue to do a lions-share of the sponsorship this year as joint title sponsors, but they provide not the funds of an Ineos or Middle Eastern principality. And yet, Lefevere has created a team some 15 years old that continues to get the most out of its riders: at Quickstep you become part of a winning team and success breeds success. Every race, every stage, the Quickstep team sets out to win, and it is now the norm that they rack up more some 60 or 70 wins a season. And the ultimate tribute to Quickstep: when a top rider of the team commands more money Lefevere does not have, they are never as good with their next team. But let us get into the nitty gritty, let us dig into this 2021 lineup.

Let us start with Julian Alaphilippe, sure he comes first alphabetically, but we all know that is not why the Frenchman takes the top spot. He takes the pride of place on this list, because he is a proven champion and one of the hottest names in cycling. Where to start with the electric Musketeer Julian Alaphilippe? His career has been progressing extremely well over the past five years and in 2019 he won every cycling fan’s heart with his deep run in the Yellow Jersey at the Tour de France, like Hector of Troy he was ultimately vanquished in epic style only days from the finish of the race. In 2020, he did not look right before lockdown, and coming out he seemed slow to form. He took a Tour stage early and had another stint in Yellow, but it was nothing like 2019 for he seemed “off” the rest of the race. One week after the Tour we found out why: in Imola he won the World Champion’s Rainbow Jersey—his only real target of the season. Perhaps the Rainbows went to his head, because he proceeded to “Monumentally” blow up a thrilling Liege-Bastogne-Liege that was falling into place for him. At the end of the race he cut off Marc Hirschi (Team DSM) in the sprint only to sit up too early for Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) to beat him in a bike-throw at the line. He almost sat up too early again just a few days later against Mathieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix) at Brabantse Pijl. And in an impressive debut at the Tour of Flanders he proved he had to the legs to match Van Der Poel and Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), but he finished without a result as he crashed into a motorbike—it was a shame, but it seemed most thought it was Julian’s own fault. Thus we come to 2021 where he shall have a full Spring Classics campaign to show off the Rainbows, and then ride in the Grand Tours as well. I would love to see him on great form again for Flanders and this time he finish without crashing out, and then I’d like to see him take a proper shot at all three Ardennes Classics again: Amstel Gold, Fleche Wallone, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. For a Frenchman like him I do not see how the Giro could ever be a priority, so after Liege, rest and build up to the Tour as usual. He has already worn Yellow, he has already won the Polka-dots, he has already been most Combative, but who knows. I think the Muskeeter should show up there on his best form and just see how the race develops for him. Though perhaps after quick success for sponsors, he uses the Tour as preparation for the Olympic Road Race in Tokyo only 6 days after the finish in Paris just as it was in prep for Imola this year. After the Olympics, surely he should take aim at a Worlds repeat and stay on form for il Lombardia—a Monument he needs to win before his career is through. Our Musketeer has won the Rainbow Jersey and though he looks marvelous in it, that is now old news. Now he can recalibrate, and try to show it off well this season.

I speak next of what has become a premiere position is cycling: Quickstep’s top sprinter slot. A position formerly occupied by the famous names of Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Fernando Gaviria (UAE Team Emirates), and Elia Viviani (Cofidis); the role was taken over last year by Irishman Sam Bennett. Perhaps he was not as dominant as Kittel, and maybe he did not even win as much as Viviani or Gaviria, but he did what almost none of the other sprinters have done—save one who wore not the Quickstep colors at the time. Sam Bennett defeated the mighty one, cycling’s Rockstar Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) at his bread-and-butter Points competition for the Tour de France’s Green Jersey. As good as he was two years ago, few would ever have predicted Bennett to be Quickstep’s top sprinter, let alone the man to finally snap Sagan’s Green Jersey domination. But here he is, winning in Green on the Champs-Elysees to boot—a feat not even his mentor the legendary Sean Kelly could accomplish! Add a Vuelta stage win to his two Tour stages and Green Jersey and you have a respectable haul of prizes in the shortened season. The only real dream left for Bennett must be to win Milan-Sanremo, and if the race stays together over the Poggio he’ll be on the right team for it this year. When talking about that top Quickstep sprinter, it is becoming apparent that it is the lead-out that breeds success and many different sprinters can simply be inserted, hence the success of the revolving-imported top sprinter and continued success of Fabio Jakobsen and Alvaro Hodeg. And the man that must be mentioned by name in that lead-out train is Michael Morkov, if cycling had good stats on “assists” he would have quite an impressive palmares. I cannot name anyone who has ever guided, set up, and launched more sprinters to stage success; his ability to read a race and move through the peloton is completely unrivalled. And since he has been mentioned, I must shout out the great hope that Fabio Jakobsen makes it back to winning ways to fully shake off that most devastating Tour of Poland crash—one of the worst in the history of the sport.

There is also another Quickstep rider coming back from injury. Yes, you know of whom I speak. The phenom conveniently produced in the heartland of Cyclingdom, the Belgian Remco Evenepoel. What an amazing start to the season 20-year-old Evenepoel had on both sides of lockdown: GC (General Classification) victories in San Juan, Algarve, Burgos, and Poland—all with increasingly respectable competition. Already a winner of the hilly San Sebastian Basque Country Classic in 2019, Remco went into il Lombardia with high hopes before his Giro d’Italia debut. What could halt such an amazing season, you say? Yes, yes, only literally falling off a multi-story bridge into a Lombardy valley. The crash was scary, he was lucky to be alive and he was out for the remainder of the season. But before the season was over, he was already itching and training to be back on the bike. May he be back to his best this year, for we all wish to see what he shall unleash at the Giro and in the Olympics: who can say what he shall be more dominant at, climbing or time trailing?

Then we must of course praise the soul of this team: their classics line up. As ever, some big names have been signed away, but it is of little consequence to these pure racers. Zdenek Stybar already has four or five big Classics to his name and more shall be expected of him. But the rider I eagerly wait to see make the biggest jump is John Deere Yves Lampaert, previously Belgian champion and twice winner of Dwars I expect and hope he takes a big cobbled classic this year. The other Classics arrows in the Quickstep quiver must be Kasper Asgreen, Remi Cavagna, and Florian Senechal: watch this counterattack to many wins after the peloton is spent chasing down Stybar or Lampaert like Niki Terpestra (Total Direct Energie) would do a few years ago when Tom Boonen was marked. They shall as ever have a wonderful supporting cast, it is difficult to tell who shall step up or if everyone will take their turn, but I mention two more by name: the Tractor Tim Declercq ever one of the most loyal domestiques keeping the breakaways in check for hundreds of kilometers in the middle of the stages, and of course Iljo Keisse who is still an excellent domestique going strong ever since that unforgettable 2012 Tour of Turkey finish (to be the subject of multiple future posts).

There are more young riders on the team, some like Joao Almeida and James Knox have already achieved Grand Tour success, and I am sure the other young ones shall step up to the plate and impress this season as well, when they take multiple unexpected stage victories. But there is one new transferred rider I must dwell on before this preview is through. Yes, I speak of the man that was my first favorite rider when I was getting “into” cycling, I speak of the town veteran Manx Missile Mark Cavendish. I was frightened and dragging my feet thinking I would have to write Cav’s Retirement Obituary so soon. Thankfully, this is not the case; when the news dropped I am sure all of us were surprised and taken aback. Cavendish has already done a three-year stint with Quickstep, but now he returns it seems by bringing on his own sponsorship. What the goals of the Manx Missile are this coming season are yet undetermined or at least unrevealed; for surely he shall not be the top sprinter, let alone even have more than a miniscule chance of making their Tour team to chase the coveted 34 stage victories record. But from what I can tell, Cav feels or knows he is not finished, he has more to give and here is an excellent team to help him achieve a proper retirement sendoff…or even revive his career.

I could talk about Quickstep for hours, but hopefully this shall suffice for now as I continue previewing the other teams. But a final thought: I think the uniform is improved this year. I thought last year the white top with the weird “overalls” look was tacky from the start. They have yet to give up on the overalls idea that I find to be a clunker, but at least now it is much more subtle with another a lighter shade of blue across the chest. In fact, I find both shades of blue aesthetically pleasing and so I hope this uniform shall grow on me a little bit more.