And so we come to it at last, once more. “Once more into the breach, dear friends, Once More!” Another great battle for our time, surely another clash of titans shall ensue. It is to chronicle such clashes that drove me to form this show. Beyond “umpteen” amounts of times have they clashed before—perhaps we near triple digits of proper mano-a-mano duels, and yet our craving for duels between these archrivals can never be satisfied if both are the favorites on the start line. Such a rivalry as theirs is truly becoming a World War across the Cycling Calendar, but this week we return to their oldest and most beloved of stomping grounds. It is the biggest stage, for the seventh year in a row they are the premiere headliners, for seven years in a row they have made us triple circle the last Sunday of January on our calendars. Yes, each with three World Titles, this shall be a rub match, perhaps even a grudge match. “Once more into the breach” indeed this Sunday, as Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Mathieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix) line up once more to fight for World Title honors.
O! Who can rise up to the occasion and match the pedal strokes of these mighty champions? Who can summon the power of a chariot drawn by four horses? Who can run across a dune sea with their bike slung over the shoulder? Who can muscle up a climb with the fury of a charging bull? Who can throw all caution to all Four Winds that are sure confluence this day as they descend down the other side? Who can rail the turns at the acutest of angles and wildest of speeds? Surely, all the other challengers know this is what shall be required of them if they are to even attempt to go toe-to-toe with Van Aert and Van Der Poel. Surely Eli Iserbyt (Pauwels Sauzen-Bingoal) and Tom Pidcock (Trinity Racing) are in the ascendency and prepared to hold their own. Pidcock outright beat Van Der Poel at Gavere in one of their first races back. Iserbyt has held down the cyclocross fort all season, put in a full calendar of Cross with no appointments on the Road delaying his start; from wire to wire he has been here, save a handful of races missed while nursing an elbow injury. But surely these two are not yet at the peaks of their powers, still in ascendency and I fear it is not enough if Van Aert and Van Der Poel are on their best days. Is it even wise for them to attempt dive into the gruesome fighting and epic madness that shall be caused by the battle that shakes the foundations of the cycling world as so often happens when these two aces meet? What of Michael Vanthourenhout (Pauwels Sauzen-Bingoal), or Toon Aerts (Baloise Trek Lions), or Laurens Sweeck (Pauwels Sauzen-Bingoal)? Vanthourenhout has rode at a consist level higher all this season. Toon has not seemed his best, but should come good on a demanding course—never count him out! And Sweeck, why! We all know how much he loves the sand, surely where he always goes better. But alas! They and Pidcock and Iserbyt and all the others must be fighting for only that last podium spot barring mishap.
How shall the race play out? I do believe the weather must be a factor, it is supposed to rain and even snow on the lead up days to the race. How packed shall the sand be? How slick shall the grassy turns be? Shall we see running sections beyond the large beach? Let us weigh up the two aces. Here are the most current attributes of the two top men at this moment—and it must be noted: I love that their advantages and disadvantages have both evolved over even just their short careers thus far. I need not say it, but I shall so that it is recorded: Matheiu Van Der Poel has the greatest bike-handling skills in this field, perhaps he is even currently the greatest bike handler in any cycling discipline. In addition to this fact, it seems to me, he can put in the most deadly and fastest one-lap time on any course amongst the field—and when he does so, try as he might, not even Wout has a chance to keep up with him. And finally, on paper, Van Der Poel still has the edge in a sprint, but that is no longer assured or anywhere close to a given. Meanwhile, at this time, Wout’s advantage is that he clearly has the biggest engine in the sport at this time, but that advantage is cancelled out because I do not see him any longer as a top three bike handler in this field (Matheiu, Pidcock, and Iserbyt at least are superior). With his massive engine, he has most power for the full hour’s ride—more power than even Van Der Poel for the full race. Additionally, Wout clearly licks his lips at significant changes of elevation on a course: he is prepared to climb and be the last survivor among his competitors, forget not his 2020 Tour de France! And finally, what has been the most dominant facet of his game this season is the running. Remember Dedermonde this season? O! How muddy it was—perhaps more than half the race was on the feet and off the bike! It was this race that Wout, covered in mud from helmet to toe, won by two full country miles over Van Der Poel who finished in second almost 3 minutes down. Thus the merits are laid out. Now let us balance these merits using this Ostend course as a scale, and let us see whose merits weigh heavier and whose lighter.
Plan and simply, the first half of the course must favor Wout and the second half shall be tailored to Van Der Poel’s technical skills and accelerations. The long straightaways shall give a hair’s width advantage to Wout, the first flyover the big bridge—the Golden Gate Bridge of cyclocross—should suit them evenly in the first laps. And then we come to the beach and the big sandy loop. Here is the ultimate question: how much of it shall be rideable? How much shall they have to run? Surely they shall be able to ride near the water, but with rain and enough snow, shall the crossings from shore to bridge be more rideable than usual or more shall the sand still be O! too deep? We shall not see until they go at such sections at full tilt, on the first lap of the race. Coming out of such a sandy section, the second ascent of the bridge should suit Wout’s big engine undeterred and not skipping a beat coming straight off the sandy stretches. And then we come into Van Der Poel’s domain, especially should the course prove simply slick and not sopping mud. But how much room will be in the course turns? How much speed shall needed to be scrubbed in the tightest ones? Perhaps not as much as usual, for it seems based on past years space in plentiful on these verdant wide lanes, perhaps Wout shall be able to hang onto Van Der Poel on this back half of the course.
Yes, it seems to be an evenly matched contest and really comes down to the day-of conditions to see who the advantage finally breaks for. Besides the Golden Gate Bridge, Wout has no elevation change advantage. Should the sand be more packed and limit the amount of running the scales swing towards Van Der Poel’s favor as we assume he shall handle the sandy ruts better. Slick grass on the other side favors Van Der Poel as well. But despite this, it must be remembered that in such World Championships as these: Wout is more clutch. There have already been multiple full seasons where Mathieu has dominated Wout every race all season, but Wout still has his best day at Worlds and upsets Van Der Poel. This year it is more finely balanced, Wout was the one to win the last race on Sunday. In such a race, yes, Van Der Poel had a minor mechanical that cost him twenty seconds or so, but twice he tried his deadly relentless lap, and he could not catch-on to Wout’s wheel. And should there be copiously amounts of running across the sands, we could be seeing Wout win by another country mile. Thus I make my prediction—or perhaps it is only what I hope for most: the two aces, Mathieu in his Dutch orange and Wout in his Belgian powder blue, break away completely on the first or second lap in the sand. Evenly matched they are, but around the twenty-minute-mark on the grassy side of the course, Van Der Poel launches his deadly relentless lap, the one lap where not a soul can match him. Thus a gap shall grow to Wout, but it shall be no bigger than ten or fifteen seconds. And over the beach for the rest of the laps Wout shall claw Mathieu back, and the race is decided on the last lap where Wout shall need to definitively break Mathieu on the beach or they shall go together to the sprint where Mathieu shall win. So I shall hedge my bets just slightly, I predict Wout shall break Mathieu on the beach in the later laps, but if he cannot it shall come down to a sprint at the line and Mathieu shall be the victor. It has been said before, when these two square off, should it be a proper duel who wins matters not: for thus once again all the cycling world wins.
